Bound by Climate, Divided by Strategy: Climate Security in Indo-Pacific

A child in Fiji sleeps under the threat of being swamped by a rising tide near the shore, while a farmer in Punjab watches his crops wilt under the unrelenting sun. In Vietnam, the streets of Ho Chi Minh were submerged by disastrous floods, while the rice and wheat belts of Pakistan’s Sindh region have witnessed a 14–19% drop in yields due to erratic weather and rainfall, thereby aggravating poverty and food insecurity.

These extreme events, though occurring across thousands of kilometres, are not severed by distance. Rather, they are intricately knitted together by the invisible threads of climate change — threads that transcend nationalities and boundaries. Furthermore, statistics suggest that climate shocks have caused no less than 6% losses in a third of Indo-Pacific countries in terms of their cross-border economic transactions, while the year 2021 alone saw approximately 57 million lives in the region affected by climatic catastrophes. [i]

In recent decades, the discourses around environmental sustainability and climate change have burgeoned multi-fold, triggering an academic and systematic approach to investigate and explore the alarming implications on the global order, whose gravity is presently centred in the Indo-Pacific region . Additionally, this region is climate-sensitive owing to its geographical vulnerabilities and socio-economic-cultural complexities. Likewise, thus region also faces the escalating threats of sea-level rise, extreme weather events, and resource insecurity, which collectively challenge the resilience of ecosystems, economies, and communities. Thus, bringing into the light the need to mainstream these issues in day-to-day conversations amongst intelligentsia and geo-political enthusiasts is the need of hour.

In this context, IPCC Sixth Assessment Report – Working Group II (2022) provides multifaceted insights into the impacts, adaptation, and vulnerabilities related to climate change globally and regionally. Drawing from over 34,000 studies and the expertise of over 270 authors across 67 countries, this report observes that climate impacts are already more extensive and severe than previously anticipated, thus, affecting ecosystems, biodiversity, and human habitation.[ii]

Similarly, the UNDP Climate Security in the Pacific Project  draws attention to the intersection of climate risks and security challenges confronting Pacific Island nations, where rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and resource scarcity threaten not just livelihoods but also regional stability. These findings collectively illustrate that climate change is a transboundary crisis, with cascading effects that cross national borders and disrupt daily life—whether through food insecurity, health risks, or economic instability.[iii]

Climate Change: A Security Threat in the Indo-Pacific

“Climate change is reshaping the strategic landscape of the Indo-Pacific, acting as a threat multiplier that exacerbates existing vulnerabilities.”[iv]

Climate change has fundamentally reshaped the traditional security paradigms by creating new conflict areas through resource scarcity, territorial disputes over shifting coastlines, and strategic competition for climate-resilient zones. As the rising sea levels redraw maritime boundaries and EEZs, particularly impacting archipelagic and low-lying island states sets a stage for potential territorial disputes and flashpoints in already contested waters like the South China Sea.[v] It is important to note that, while talking about these environmental shifts in a region already fraught with differences and conventional security risks further accelerates the existing vulnerabilities and erodes the state capacities to respond.

Further on, the Asia-Pacific Climate Security Project and recent security assessments have adequately substantiated the aforementioned argument as to how climate change acts as a threat multiplier, worsening food and water insecurity, destabilizing economies through disrupted supply chains and disaster-management costs, and intensifying grievances that can spill over into larger transboundary conflict and instability. [vi]

Migration: Climate Refugee and Displacement

With the coming of the century, a new terminology has created a distinct place in our academic dictionaries – “Climate Refugees.” In this context, International Organization for Migration (IOM) highlights how sea-level rise and intensified irregular storms are rendering major and minor communities uninhabitable, subsequently forcing displacement and cross-border migration. For example, the Pacific Security Outlook Report has noted that over 42 million people in the Asia-Pacific region have already been displaced by climate-related disasters, erratic weather conditions, and unprecedent load on natural resources casing their depletion with projections of up to 143 million at risk by 2050. [vii]

A compelling example can be found in the low-lying atoll Pacific islands like Carteret Islands in Papua New Guinea, Tuvalu and Kiribati, etc., where in, rising sea-level, saltwater intrusions and extreme weather conditions have caused massive displacement of communities. Between 2005 and 2015, 9% of all migration from Tuvalu and 14% from Kiribati were directly triggered by environmental hazards associated with climate change.[viii] Across the broader Indo-Pacific, disasters triggered 56% of the region’s 46.9 million new internal displacements in 2023, thus, underlining the actual scale of the challenge at hand.[ix] Therefore, these statistics highlight how climate change is not only a local issue but a transboundary crisis, reshaping migration patterns and raising urgent questions for regional and international cooperation.

Human Security Perspective

In Indonesia, shifting rainfall and irregular precipitation patterns, complemented by seasonal extremes have led to food insecurity, heightened exposure to global price shocks and market graph, decreasing governmental capacity to absorb such socio-economic disruptions. For instance, in February 2007, Jakarta and its surrounding regions experienced the worst floods in three decades, with waves rising up to four meters in some neighbourhoods, displacing nearly half a million people and causing economic losses estimated at $1 billion. [x] The floods not only paralyzed transportation, disrupted commerce and telecommunications, but also led to an outbreak of waterborne diseases like dengue fever, drawing a crucial intersection of environmental shocks with public health and infrastructure.[xi]

Thus, the broader consequences are deeply interrelated — on one hand, food shortages can lead to malnutrition and health crises, while on the other, economic instability would wane social cohesion and regional commitments. The urgency of addressing these human security challenges is sufficiently emphasized by regional strategies such as the Boe Declaration, which recognizes climate change as the single greatest threat to Pacific security and calls for collective action to safeguard the peace, wellbeing, and future of all Indo-Pacific citizenry. [xii]

Energy Security Dilemma

The energy transition in Indo-Pacific region is marked by rapid growth in renewable sources of energy — a 70% increase in capacity since 2015 according to IRENA.[xiii] However, this shift has also exposed several new vulnerabilities. The region’s clean energy supply chains depend heavily on critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements sourced mainly from handful countries like Australia, Indonesia, and China. The International Energy Agency projects that demand for some of these minerals could surge by up to 4,000% by 2040, intensifying strategic competition and entangling maritime disputes, especially in the South China Sea.[xiv] 

In the meanwhile, energy infrastructure remains highly exposed to climate risks: Cyclone Mocha in 2023 left over 2 million people in Myanmar and Bangladesh without electricity and power, and climate-related damages would cost the region up to $1.3 trillion by 2050.[xv] Additionally, renewable rollout in the Indo-Pacific is also uneven. Vietnam’s solar and wind capacity ascended from under 1 GW in 2018 to over 20 GW in 2022, while 350 million people across the region still lack reliable. Geopolitical complexities, populist agendas, and weak regional cooperation further complicates energy security, making resilience, equity, and adaptability central to the Indo-Pacific’s evolving energy order. [xvi]

Poverty and Inequality: The Self-reinforcing Loop

Climate change has extrapolated the prevailing poverty and livelihood trends in Indo-Pacific countries, who are stunted by social-economic growth, immature political regimes, and rusted governance sector which in summation, are ineligible of offering a better future to the community. On one hand, bilateral and multilateral cooperation has risen in the region; on the other, cooperation in regional diplomacy to answer this perpetual question of inequality still remains unanswered.

For instance, in Bangladesh, climate shocks such as cyclones, river erosion, and salinity intrusion have devastated rural livelihoods, particularly in regions like Pirojpur and Sylhet, alongside urban centres like Dhaka, thereby, forcing over 22 million people to migrate internally by 2050 as projected. [xvii] Dhaka alone absorbs 300,000 to 400,000 new migrants every year, the majority of whom settle in more than 5,000 slums across the city. These migrants, often displaced from coastal areas suffering from rising sea levels and frequent flooding, face “double insecurity”: not only do they endure poor living conditions and lack of adequate shelter, but they also struggle to secure stable employment, leading to heightened food insecurity and poor health outcomes. [xviii]

India faces a parallel challenge, particularly her eastern states bordering Bangladesh.

The World Bank estimates that climate change could push up to 45 million Indians into poverty by 2030, with rural communities and urban migrants bearing the brunt of economic shocks and food price volatility. Both countries’ urban centres, already struggling with infrastructure deficits, are under immense pressure to provide basic services, further exacerbating social tensions and deepening cycles of poverty and marginalization.[xix]

Existing Gaps in Current Policies: Regional Vulnerability Mapping & Strengthening Collaboration

Regional Vulnerability Mapping

Despite the availability of robust data and analysis from institutions like the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank, significant gaps remain in translating this knowledge into coordinated and comprehensive regional action. The Pacific Islands Forum’s Boe Declaration (2018) has been pivotal in framing climate change as a core security issue, yet implementation of vulnerability mapping and adaptation strategies remains uneven, particularly for the most climate sensitive Pacific Island nations. These disparities are compounded by limited access to climate finance, fragmented data collection, and insufficient integration of vulnerability assessments into national and regional policy frameworks, hindering the ability of countries to make informed, collective decisions.

Gaps in Existing Regional Frameworks

While countries such as Australia and India have advanced strong national climate security policies, the Indo-Pacific’s regional frameworks still exhibit critical shortcomings. Unilateral approaches often fail to address the transboundary nature of climate risks, and coordination among regional organizations — including ASEAN, IORA, the Pacific Islands Forum, and extra-regional actors like the EU — remains inconsistent. For example, the ASEAN State of Climate Change Report and IORA’s Blue Economy Policy Framework provide important recommendations and strategies, but their implementation is hampered by divergent national interests, lack of binding commitments, and limited cross-sectoral collaboration.[xx]

Adaptation Diplomacy as a Regional Strategy

To address these gaps, adaptation diplomacy must become a central pillar of Indo-Pacific climate security strategy. Research from Chatham House and the UN Climate Security Mechanism emphasizes the need to integrate climate action into preventive diplomacy, peacebuilding, and regional security dialogues. The Pacific Islands Forum’s Action Plan to Implement the Boe Declaration sets a precedent for region-wide adaptation and security cooperation, but broader buy-in is needed. India, through initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI) and its leadership in the blue economy, is well-positioned to facilitate multilateral dialogue, promote best practices, and coordinate ocean and climate governance in the region.

India can play a vital role in coordinating climate and ocean governance in the Indo-Pacific region by leveraging its initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI) and its leadership in the blue economy. India can facilitate dialogue between different stakeholders, promote regional cooperation on climate-related issues, and lead by example through its own climate action initiatives.

Endnotes

[i]  “The Role of Climate Change in Shaping Security Challenges in the Indo-Pacific Region,” Journal of Political Science, https://journalspoliticalscience.com/index.php/i/article/download/421/112/2494.

[ii] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group II, 2022, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/.

[iii] Devashree Saha et al., “What the New IPCC Report Says About Climate Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability,” World Resources Institute, March 1, 2022, https://www.wri.org/insights/ipcc-report-2022-climate-impacts-adaptation-vulnerability.

[iv] Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Climate Security in the Indo-Pacific, 2022. 

[v] Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), “Climate Security,” https://www.iges.or.jp/en/projects/climate-security 

[vi] Emilie Mazzacurati, “Climate and Security in the Indo-Asia Pacific,” IRIS – Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques, https://www.iris-france.org/en/149265-climate-and-security-in-the-indo-asia-pacific/.

[vii] Pacific Islands Forum, Pacific Security 2025, https://forumsec.org/sites/default/files/2025-04/Pacific%20Security%202025.pdf.

[viii] Carol Farbotko and Celia McMichael, “Migration, Evidence and Climate Change in the Pacific,” East Asia Forum, August 30, 2023, https://eastasiaforum.org/2023/08/30/migration-evidence-and-climate-change-in-the-pacific/.

[ix] Sigit Pramono et al., “Climate Change Impacts in Indonesia,” Nature Reviews Earth & Environment (2024), https://www.nature.com/articles/s44168-024-00133-1.

[x] Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, Climate Guide Indonesia, http://www.climatecentre.org/downloads/files/RCRC_ClimateG_Indonesia.pdf.

[xi] World Bank, Climate Risk Country Profile: Indonesia, May 2021, https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/2021-05/15504%20Indonesia%20Country%20Profile-WEB_0.pdf.

[xii] Pacific Islands Forum, Pacific Security 2025, https://forumsec.org/sites/default/files/2025-04/Pacific%20Security%202025.pdf.

[xiii] International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2023, March 2023, https://www.irena.org/Publications/2023/Mar/Renewable-capacity-statistics-2023.

[xiv] International Energy Agency (IEA), The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions, May 2021, https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions.

[xv] Asian Development Bank (ADB), Country Resilience and Adaptation Assessment – Indonesia, Project 55191-001, https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/linked-documents/55191-001-craa.pdf.

[xvi] Sigit Pramono et al., “Climate Change Impacts in Indonesia,” Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 5 (2024), https://www.nature.com/articles/s44168-024-00133-1.

[xvii] International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), Delivering Climate Resilience in the Indo-Pacific, February 2025, https://www.iied.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/2025-02/22604iied.pdf.

[xviii] Bipr Staff, “Climate Change Exposes Bangladesh to Greater Risk,” Bologna Institute for Policy Research, https://bipr.jhu.edu/BlogArticles/31-Climate-Change-Exposes-Bangladesh-to-Greater-Risk.cfm.

[xix] World Bank, “Managing Coastal Out-Migration in Bangladesh,” World Bank Blogs, https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/endpovertyinsouthasia/managing-coastal-out-migration-bangladesh.

[xx] Panda, Jagannath , Climate Security in the Indo-Pacific: Priorities and Challenges, Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP), https://www.isdp.eu/publication/climate-security-in-the-indo-pacific-priorities-and-challenges/.