Middle East to Mediterranean: The Adriatic Conundrum

In 1790, it was a Croatian Indologist, Ivan Filip Vezdin who printed the first copy of Sanskrit Grammer book titled ‘Sidharubam seu Grammatica Samscrdamica’ in Latin. This marked one of the earliest intellectual and cultural interactions between the Indian subcontinent and Adriatic coast. Over two centuries later, with a diplomatic hiatus of 23 years, an Indian Prime Minister has set his foot on the Croatian soil, thus, setting a historic and strategic tone to the renewed Indo-Croatian bilateralism.

In June 2025, Prime Minister Modi’s twin visit to Croatia and Cyprus signals towards a calibrated gesture of “multi-vector” diplomacy in the face of rising regional uncertainties and turmoil. It is important to note that this visit, peripheral to the Israel-Iran war in the Middle Eastern theatre and the extravagant Pak-Turkey axis at our doorstep, is emblematic of a larger “hedging strategy”, i.e. diversifying engagements to minimize dependence on single actor or geography while preserving strategic autonomy and economic viability.

India’s foreign policy posture has increasingly matured in recent decades, something that political analysts and academia have labelled as “multi-vector diplomacy” to maintain strategic flexibility, economic leverage, and geopolitical autonomy by extending alliances and forging bonds. This approach  anchored in geostrategic geography, provides nuanced undertones about India’s outreach to Croatia and Cyprus.

Economy and Connectivity

Thus, India aims at finding reliable partners in key geopolitical locations. Croatia which is located on the Adriatic coast is a key partner to both, the European Union and NATO, serves as a vital maritime gateway to Central and Eastern Europe, particularly via the TEN-T (Trans-European Transport Network) corridors. Most importantly, its ports, namely, Rijeka, Ploče, and Split, amongst others offer India an alternate access route to central, eastern and southern Europe independent of Middle Eastern chokepoints. Thus, on one hand where the accessibility to the Strait of Hormuz is threatened by the escalating Iran-Israel conflict, Croatia and its geographical virtues could be of strategic rescue.

Similarly, Cyprus, posited at the eastern Mediterranean crossroads between Europe, West Asia, and North Africa, is of immense geostrategic significance. Its proximity to the Levant and its EU membership makes it a forward node for trade, energy exploration, and naval diplomacy. Thus, Cyprus is offering to be “a first-point of entry to Europe and a transshipment hub” for Indian goods and this island could become India’s gateway into Europe, pledging to build the requisite sea-rail link. Remarkably, a Cypriot Bank also plans to open a branch in Mumbai to channelize Indian investment into the EU while India’s Stock Exchange cooperates with Cyprus’s exchange via GIFT City.

At this time, when India’s long-standing and much anticipated infrastructure investments in Iran’s Chabahar Port and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) are at a verge of sacrifice amidst the Middle Eastern crisis; New Delhi’s Mediterranean strategy acts as a robust mechanism to serve nation’s interests. Additionally, with the security challenges posed by China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); establishing stronger ties with smaller yet significant gives a strategic edge to India’s equipoise. In tandem, these connectivity partnerships are also forged with Europe’s own agenda of diversifying away from China and “de-risk” overdependence on any single partner.

Political Influence

Beyond geography, Cyprus and Croatia offer political leverage. Both are EU members with a voice in Brussels. This implies that meaningful engagement could potentially translate in shaping the bloc decisions and further strengthen New Delhi’s advocacy on the global stage. Alongside, Cyprus’s upcoming EU Council Presidency in 2026 is crucial since Nicosia has already pledged that strengthening EU-India relations will be a top priority during its tenure. This backing could prove decisive for the mired India-EU free-trade pact with reports signalling that the Indian government is “working on finalising a mutually beneficial India-EU trade agreement by the end of this year.” This was also substantiated by the mutual reiteration of comprehensive FTA by Modi and Christodoulides.

Additionally, both Croatia and Cyprus have consistently favoured India at the United Nations which acts as a diplomatic leverage against Turkey-Azerbaijan-Pakistan nexus in light of recent Indo-Pak escalated relations. They have also seconded India’s bid at the UNSC.

Thus, India is advancing in her goals on two fronts: (a) accessing European markets, helping build infrastructure like ports, rails, and pipelines that bypass conflict zones and (b) garnering EU’s support on the global stage over Pakistan’s dubious tactics. This reciprocity is a hallmark of liberal internationalism, deepening interdependence to enhance collective security and shared prosperity.

Infrastructure and Investment Partners

It is pertinent to note that corridors were not the only subjects of engagement in this historic visit. In Croatia, PM Modi invited local industry to engage in India’s ambitious infrastructure projects. New Delhi discoursed about her SAGARMALA projects with the Croatian firms, while opening “vast opportunities for maritime expertise” between the two parties. It is reported that India even offered to share its space technology expertise with Croatia and marked new dimensions of collaboration in cutting-edge fields. A new mobility agreement was announced to ease travel and visas for boosting tourism, business and cross-border exchange of human resource and capital. Similarly, PM Modi appealed to Cypriot investors to tap into India’s booming digital, green-energy and tech sectors.

On the policy level, India and Croatia have upgraded their defense as well as industrial ties. With regards to this, a framework Memoranda was signed, committing to co-production and training. Likewise, in Cyprus, the parties agreed to enhance cybersecurity linkages and facilitate cyber‑defense cooperation. Both countries reaffirmed their shared Non-Aligned heritage and deep cultural and historical bonds. These soft power elements of resonance towards shared culture, history, and values symbolize the strategic depth and cultivation of goodwill within the mutual relationship.

Defense and Security Cooperation

The visit to Cyprus in particular delivered a new security commitment. According to official statements, India agreed to “step up its defense ties” with Cyprus through closer industry collaboration. Both sides have pledged to expand their maritime cooperation with Modi and Christodoulides announcing more frequent Indo-Cyprus joint naval exercises complemented by search-and-rescue drills. The joint declaration even envisages a formal Bilateral Defense Cooperation Programme (BDCP) from 2025 onwards, to coordinate defense production and training. Cyprus likewise offered to host Indian vessels, warships and share maritime surveillance, thus, reflecting a watershed moment in Indo-Mediterranean security ties.

However, security collaboration is not limited to ships and vessels. With the turning of the new era, which has unleashed the renewed thresholds of AI and technology; both the leaders have committed to sharing intelligence on cybersecurity and information technology. Most importantly, terrorism and fundamentalism were also highlighted as a new frontier and cooperation was forged to counter the same.

These measures underline that India’s outreach is not merely out of economic or strategic necessity. By integrating Cyprus and Croatia into its security framework, New Delhi aims at extending strategic stability beyond her borders. Therefore, security partnership coupled with political alignment strengthens a liberal-­realist framework: ‘making the region safer through shared norms like anti-terrorism and deterrent structures like the naval presence.’

Energy Security

The backdrop of the Israel-Iran conflict has re-ignited debates on energy insecurity and supply chains left at the mercy of regional volatility. India has traditionally relied on Gulf oil, thereby, making stability in West Asia extremely vital for economy. In this context, India has expressed willingness to Eastern Mediterranean energy cooperation with Cyprus’s offshore gas fields, which could diversify its sources. Moreover, the uncertain future of hefty investments in Chabahar and Haifa has compelled New Delhi to seek an alternative route to Asia.

For instance, Chabahar was designated to link India to the landlocked neighbours offshore the Arabian Sea via Iran, bypassing our northwestern adversary. PM Modi himself pushed this flagship cooperation as a “vital trade artery connecting India with Afghanistan and Central Asian countries.” Conversely, given the Middle Eastern crisis over decades, the Cyprus-Croatia corridor is less prone to uncertainties. If the Gulf routes are stranded, the Adriatic-Mediterranean lines remain open. Thus, investing in European and Southeast EU partners hedges India’s supply risk, making these visits prudent diversification.

However, this strategy is not without critics. Some analysists observe that the Cyprus visit as an overt signal to Turkey, thus, warning that such alignments could provoke regional backlash. Critics also note that excluding Turkey from IMEC- despite its strategic corridors could potentially alienate a major neighbour jeopardising the full merit of the plan. While some others question the substance of these visits. Croatia’s economy is small; thus, New Delhi’s gains will be marginal. Could India risk deploying diplomatic capital on symbolic gestures? In this context, it is rather quintessential to take a note that- India is not choosing among friends or enemies, but expanding her circle.

Aligning with Croatia and Cyprus does not preclude ties with Turkey or Russia or any other giant power. Rather, it reflects the aforementioned hedging strategy. Additionally, the Croatian market may be small, but it opens doors to Central Europe and the Balkans, and sends a message of intent to invest in newer market places.

Thus, PM Modi’s Croatia and Cyprus visits represent a multi-dimensional strategy. As policy analysts have observed, countries like Cyprus now act as “linchpins” in connecting India with the Middle East and Europe. Politically, India signalled alignment with new and lesser-known European partners against common adversaries; economically, it opened fresh trade and investment arteries linking Asia to Europe.

Militarily, it expanded defense and maritime cooperation in a hitherto remote region. Far from parochial diplomacy, these moves show India hedging its bets in a volatile world. Even as India engages for peace in West Asia, it is nurturing ties around the world to ensure no single crisis can isolate it.

Whether viewed through ancient wisdom or modern strategic theory, the message is clear: India will diversify her attention and partners based on issue-based alliances and independently navigate amidst the regional storms and be responsible for her fortunes!

References

1.       ABP News Bureau. “PM Modi Concludes Visit to Croatia after Meeting Top Leadership.” ABP Live, June 19, 2025. https://news.abplive.com/news/india/pm-modi-concludes-visit-to-croatia-after-meeting-top-leadership-1671102.

2.       The Hindu Bureau. “PM Modi Concludes Visit to Croatia after Meeting Top Leadership.” The Hindu, June 19, 2025. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/pm-modi-concludes-visit-to-croatia-after-meeting-top-leadership/article69711620.ece.

3.       Kumar, Saurabh. “Message to Turkey: Why PM Modi’s First Operation Sindoor Trip, Cyprus-EU Trade, Cooperation, Energy, India-Pak Explained.” India Today, June 16, 2025. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/message-turkey-why-pm-modi-first-operation-sindoor-trip-cyprus-eu-trade-cooperation-energy-india-pak-explained-2741434-2025-06-16.

4.       Sharma, Ananya. “Explained: Significance of PM Modi’s Croatia Visit.” The Indian Express, June 19, 2025. https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-global/significance-pm-modis-croatia-visit-10076070/.

5.       PTI. “PM Modi Cyprus Visit: Significance, Turkey Message, Pakistan, G7 Countries.” The Economic Times, June 16, 2025. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/pm-modi-cyprus-visit-significance-turkey-message-pakistan-g7-countries/articleshow/121902503.cms.

6.       Reuters Staff. “India Expects EU Trade Deal by Year End, Cyprus Pledges Support.” Reuters, June 16, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-expects-eu-trade-deal-by-year-end-cyprus-pledges-support-2025-06-16/.

7.       AP News Staff. “Cyprus, India Sign Defense, Cybersecurity, Maritime Deals during Modi Visit.” AP News, June 16, 2025. https://apnews.com/article/cyprus-india-defense-cybersecurity-maritime-modi-imec-22f6e19d4a4554e9867473ed10a10324.

8.       Aydin, Tuba Nur. “Decoding Indian Prime Minister Modi’s Visit to Cyprus.” Daily Sabah, June 19, 2025. https://www.dailysabah.com/opinion/op-ed/decoding-indian-prime-minister-modis-visit-to-cyprus.