When Oil Becomes a Weapon: Trump’s Cuba Ultimatum Explained
- Nishthi Bhatia
- Jan 13
- 6 min read
In early January 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a stark warning to Cuba that it must “make a deal with the United States before it’s too late” or face the cessation of all Venezuelan oil and financial support. This escalation comes amid dramatic U.S. military mobilization in Venezuela, including the seizure and detention of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces, and marked changes in how Venezuelan oil is distributed and controlled. The implications of the standoff stretch far beyond mere rhetoric. They touch on longstanding historical tensions, resource geopolitics, regional alliances, and the economics of energy dependency.
Venezuela’s Oil: A Strategic Commodity with Global Reach
Venezuela's large proven oil reserves, estimated at 300 billion barrels-almost 17% of the world's total-highlight its strategic importance and regional influence, which should evoke a sense of significance and respect for its resource wealth.
Venezuela, under the reigns of Hugo Chávez and then Nicolás Maduro, primarily relied on oil as both a source of economic power and a foreign policy tool. In return for political support, military cooperation, and intelligence services, Caracas gave crude oil to allied countries like Cuba at heavily subsidised prices.
Cuba, for its part, has been relying on Venezuelan oil supplies for years; thus, their relationship has mitigated the impact of U.S. sanctions and economic pressure coming from Washington. Some sources claim that Cuba once consumed around 120,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan oil, which was a significant portion of its energy requirements.
When Trump’s administration moved to seize control of Venezuelan oil export routes and began blocking shipments as part of wider measures against Maduro’s government, it dealt an immediate economic blow to Havana. With no crude leaving Venezuelan ports for Cuba since the U.S. blockade and seizure operations began, the island nation’s energy lifeline is effectively choked off.
Trump’s Motivations: Oil, Influence, and Security
Redirecting Venezuelan Oil to U.S. Interests
One central motivation behind Trump’s aggressive stance is the desire to control Venezuela’s oil production and revenue. The U.S. has made clear that Venezuelan crude once destined for adversaries could instead be diverted to American markets -or at a minimum, be controlled under U.S. supervision.
According to a report by the Reuters agency, up to $2 billion worth of crude oil would be exported directly to the U.S. as part of a deal between the U.S. and Venezuelan governments, with the oil proceeds to be supervised by U.S. officials. Although the exact nature of the agreement is unclear, it suggests Washington's intention to utilise Venezuelan energy resources for its political and economic benefit. Additionally, Trump declared that millions of barrels of Venezuelan oil would be given to the U.S., reportedly far exceeding historical volumes.
Weakening Maduro’s Power and Regional Networks
Beyond commercial interests, Trump’s actions aim to decouple Cuba and Venezuela -two longtime allies -and undermine the regional anti-U.S. bloc they represented. Trump has cast Maduro as a criminal leader involved in narco-trafficking, framing military intervention as part of both a security operation and a push for regime change.
In this broader campaign, Cuba is seen as a linchpin of Maduro’s security apparatus. Trump publicly criticized Cuba’s role in providing security and intelligence services to the Venezuelan government, insisting that such support would no longer continue.
By threatening to cut Cuba off completely from Venezuelan oil and money, Trump is not merely applying economic pressure -he is attempting to reshape the political landscape of the Caribbean and the Western Hemisphere to favor U.S. interests.
Cuba’s Reaction: Sovereignty, Resistance, and Resilience
The Cuban authorities quickly turned down Trump’s ultimatum, branding it as a breach of their sovereignty and an act of coercion. Havana's government claimed that Cuba has the sovereign right to import fuel from any seller willing to sell it, and brushed aside U.S. claims that the island's economic troubles are solely caused by external factors.
The economy of Cuba is already in a bad state due to the U.S. embargoes that have lasted for decades, plus the internal inefficiencies, and the global changes that have been going on need the potential loss of Venezuelan oil, which has been a significant source of energy for the island, to worsen the situation. Havana might then have to search for alternative suppliers, such as Russia or Mexico, which would further complicate the situation.
Cuba's government has made it very clear that it will not give in to U.S. demands. The leadership has exhibited a strong posture, which, in the light of Trump’s pressure, is the commitment to autonomy and defense. This defiant tone is in sync with the classic Cuban stories of their resistance against foreign meddling.
International Responses: Allies and Adversaries React
Globally, the shifting U.S. strategy in Latin America has drawn scrutiny and varying reactions. China, with significant investments in Venezuela, is recalibrating its strategy in light of Trump’s aggressive stance, weighing the risks and opportunities of maintaining ties with Caracas.
Russia has strongly condemned U.S. actions, denouncing tankers seized under the oil blockade as acts of “piracy in the Caribbean Sea.” Meanwhile, countries and human rights advocates have raised concerns about the legal and ethical basis of U.S. intervention, particularly around the capture and detention of sovereign leaders without explicit authorization.
Regional Implications
Regional and global implications of these actions are significant, as they could reshape hemispheric politics and influence international stability, encouraging readers to feel a sense of responsibility and concern about the broader impact.
Trump's threats towards Cuba and his interference in Venezuela show that the U.S. is trying to regain its influence in the Western Hemisphere, a move that brings to mind the old doctrines that kept external powers out of the region. Some experts see similarities between Trump's methods and past policies that were designed to secure U.S. supremacy over its neighboring countries.
In this context, the Latin American nations can see the complexity of the factors that come into play regarding their sovereignty, their reliance on and competition for economic influence among the great powers. The U.S. has for a long time considered countries like Cuba and Venezuela as its policy's unfortunate victims; however, ironically, they now find themselves in the midst of a power struggle to control the energy resources and project military force.
Energy Markets and the Global Economy
Beyond regional politics, the control of Venezuelan oil has broader implications for global energy markets. The U.S.'s decision to take and reallocate Venezuelan oil might affect not only prices and refineries but also reserve strategies. Trump has already made public his intention to sell Venezuelan oil, which could be a factor in the already complicated global supply situation due to various uncertainties.
Meanwhile, countries such as China, India, and some European nations that used to buy Venezuelan crude now have to deal with changed relationships as a result of the shift in global oil supply and demand. The manner in which such markets adjust will be determined by the combination of political talks and the rate at which oil output recovers.
Conclusion: Coercion, Strategy, and Regional Dynamics
Trump’s threats directed at Cuba by the way of Venezuelan oil are not just words. More than that, they are a part of U.S. strategy that is well thought-out and is aimed at using energy resources for political influence, making the main enemies of U.S. interests weaker, and changing the politics of the continent.
Cuba claims it will not give up its fight, yet the country's economic weaknesses turn this confrontation into something very important. The fate of Venezuela -in every sense- will also be a factor in the region’s evolution.
Ultimately, the U.S. stance underscores how natural resources like oil remain deeply entangled with politics, security, and global power structures. Venezuela’s crude is no longer merely a commodity. In 2026, it is a symbol of strategic dominance and an anchor in one of the most consequential U.S.–Latin America flashpoints in decades.
References
Associated Press. (2026, January 11). With Cuban ally Maduro ousted, Trump warns Havana to make a “deal” before it’s too late. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/b9ffd24928e34dc7e3fc1fdcb22709a1
Deccan Herald. (2026, January 11). Trump warns Cuba to make a deal as Venezuelan oil, money support ends. Deccan Herald. https://www.deccanherald.com/world/trump-warns-cuba-to-make-a-deal-as-venezuelan-oil-money-support-ends-3858776
Express Web Desk. (2026, January 11). Make a deal before it’s too late: Trump threatens Cuba. The Indian Express. https://indianexpress.com/article/world/trump-threatens-cuba-no-oil-money-after-attack-in-venezuela-10467777/
Reuters. (2026, January 11). Cuba defiant after Trump says island to receive no more Venezuelan oil or money. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-suggests-cuba-should-strike-deal-with-us-2026-01-11/
Reuters. (2026, January 6). Venezuela to export $2 billion worth of oil to U.S. in deal with Washington. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/venezuela-us-talks-export-venezuelan-oil-us-sources-say-2026-01-06/
Time. (2026, January). Time explains: What’s happening with the U.S. and Venezuela. Time.
The Guardian. (2026, January 11). Trump tells Cuba to “make a deal” or face consequences. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/11/trump-tells-cuba-to-make-a-deal-or-face-the-consequences
Wikipedia contributors. (2026). 2026 United States intervention in Venezuela. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_intervention_in_Venezuela
Comments