The Middle East at a Crossroads: Old Conflicts, New Partnerships and a Changing Regional Order

Abstract

The Middle East is experiencing a profound geopolitical realignment marked by the erosion of traditional alliances, the rise of interest-based partnerships, and the growing influence of new external power brokers. Once defined by entrenched ideological rivalries and chronic instability, the region has increasingly moved toward what may be described as “liquid alliances”—flexible, pragmatic arrangements shaped by immediate strategic needs rather than long-term commitments.

This transformation can be understood through a combination of realism, which explains balance-of-power calculations, and constructivism, which highlights the enduring role of identities, norms, and narratives such as the Palestinian cause. The Arab Spring of 2011 accelerated these shifts by exposing structural weaknesses in Arab states and triggering civil wars in Syria, Libya, and Yemen—conflicts that evolved into proxy battlegrounds for competing powers.

Recent diplomatic breakthroughs—including the Abraham Accords (2020) and the Saudi–Iran rapprochement brokered by China (2023)—illustrate how regional states now prioritize economic stability and de-escalation over ideology. Yet these alliances remain fragile, vulnerable to shocks such as the Gaza war. Whether this fluid order can deliver sustainable stability or merely reconfigure old rivalries remains the central question for the Middle East’s future.

Introduction: From Fixed Blocs to Fluid Alignments

For decades the Middle East was viewed as a region of rigid alliances and permanent conflict. Today it is increasingly characterized by flexibility, issue-based cooperation, and rapidly shifting priorities. The 2011 Arab Spring marked a watershed moment: movements that sought to dismantle authoritarian rule instead produced civil wars, state collapse, and unprecedented external intervention.

Out of this turbulence emerged the phenomenon of “liquid alliances.” These are informal partnerships built around immediate interests—security, trade, technology—rather than ideological solidarity. Unlike traditional blocs, they are volatile, marked by mutual suspicion and frequent realignment. Regional institutions such as the Arab League and the GCC have struggled to adapt, revealing the limits of formal multilateralism.

Several forces drive this transition: sectarian fragmentation, selective U.S. disengagement, the rise of ambitious economic agendas, and the search for regime survival through power balancing. Ideologies such as pan-Arabism have weakened, while political Islam and sectarianism have empowered non-state actors like ISIS and Al-Qaeda. Yet ideology has not disappeared. Iran’s support for Hamas despite sectarian differences shows how pragmatic interests coexist with enduring narratives—above all the Palestinian cause, which resurfaced powerfully during the Gaza war and tested the limits of normalization.

A Decade of Upheaval and Broken Stability

The Arab Spring began with hopes of democratic renewal but descended into political wreckage. Syria, Libya, and Yemen became arenas of brutal civil war; Egypt’s transition ended in military rule; Tunisia’s fragile consensus unraveled. Power vacuums invited intervention by regional and global actors, turning domestic conflicts into internationalized proxy wars.

In Syria, the Assad regime survived through Russian, Iranian, and Hezbollah support, while Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia backed rival factions. Libya’s NATO intervention toppled Gaddafi but failed to secure a political settlement, leaving a fragmented state. The rise of ISIS drew in a U.S.-led coalition and further militarized the region.

Gulf monarchies led counter-revolutionary campaigns to prevent democratic contagion, while Iran consolidated its “Axis of Resistance.”

Turkey and Qatar promoted Islamist movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood. These interventions sectarianized politics and transformed reform movements into struggles for regional supremacy.

The period exposed the contradictions of regional institutions that relied on symbolic pan-Arab rhetoric without genuine integration. The old order collapsed, but no stable alternative emerged.

New Partnerships and the Diplomatic Reset

Exhausted by proxy wars, regional powers gradually embraced pragmatic diplomacy focused on economic growth and de-escalation.

Key Milestones

1. Abraham Accords (2020): Brokered by the U.S., the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco normalized ties with Israel, breaking decades of Arab consensus. Technology access, shared concerns about Iran, and economic opportunity outweighed earlier ideological commitments.

2. I2U2 (2022): The India–Israel–UAE–USA grouping prioritized geoeconomics—energy, food security, infrastructure—demonstrating how economic interdependence can bypass political disputes.

3. Saudi–Iran Rapprochement (2023): China mediated restoration of diplomatic ties between Riyadh and Tehran, reflecting Saudi Arabia’s need for regional calm to pursue Vision 2030 and end costly wars such as Yemen.

4. Saudi–Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (2025): A formalized collective defence framework signaled Riyadh’s diversification beyond the Western security umbrella.

These initiatives illustrate a new diplomacy—parallel, sometimes contradictory partnerships where states engage rivals and allies simultaneously.

The Shifting Regional Order

Declining U.S. Centrality

Perceptions of inconsistent American commitment have pushed Gulf states toward diversification. Washington’s unconditional support for Israel, especially during the Gaza war, clashed with Arab priorities and strained new partnerships such as I2U2.

Simultaneously, the U.S. has pursued selective engagement—reducing troops in Syria while intensifying strikes against the Houthis and supporting Israeli operations. This ambiguity has encouraged regional hedging toward China, Russia, Turkey, and India.

Israel and Regional Instability

Israel’s post-2024 military campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and against Iranian facilities have reshaped threat perceptions. Occupation of the UN buffer zone in southern Syria and strikes across the region have stalled normalization momentum. Saudi Arabia has made clear that ties with Israel depend on a credible two-state pathway. For GCC states, Israel now appears less a partner against Iran and more an unpredictable actor undermining regional stability.

Rise of New Actors

China’s mediation, Turkey’s growing role, and India’s economic integration through IMEC reflect a multipolar Middle East. Security is increasingly linked to economic corridors, technology, and energy rather than solely military alignments.

Conclusion: Fragile Equilibrium or New Stability?

The contemporary Middle East is defined by experimentation. Liquid alliances help states navigate uncertainty but do not resolve core conflicts. The fall of Assad, divergent approaches to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and open U.S. support for regime change in Iran reveal how principles are subordinated to expediency.

China’s cautious rise and America’s contradictory posture add further volatility. The Gaza war demonstrated that the Palestinian issue remains a powerful constraint on normalization, capable of fracturing pragmatic coalitions overnight.

The central challenge ahead is whether regional actors can transform flexibility into durable institutions grounded in shared interests, or whether the region will drift toward a chaotic free-for-all. Lasting stability requires addressing root causes—foremost the Palestinian question—while external powers must prioritize genuine peace over short-term advantage. History suggests the crossroads is real, but the destination remains uncertain.