The Kashmir Attack and the Breakdown of India-Pakistan Ties

The Long-Standing Dispute 

The conflict between India and Pakistan is one of the long-standing disputes of the South Asian region. This enduring conflict between the two South Asian nations dates back to 1947, the year when both nations gained independence from British rule. 

One of the central issues of the conflict between the two nations is the territorial dispute over the province of Jammu and Kashmir, a princely state that acceded the territory to India after partition. Despite the UN-mediated ceasefire, which ultimately led to the establishment of the Line of Control (LoC), dividing the region. The countries have fought three full-scale wars in 1947, 1965, and 1971 and numerous skirmishes, particularly over Kashmir. The Kargil war in 1999, fought in the high-altitude mountains of Ladakh, is one of the most notable ones. 

Cross-border terrorism is also another reason for the breakdown of diplomatic relations and of mutual accusations of interference and sabotage. New Delhi, on one hand, accuses Islamabad of harbouring and sponsoring activities of terrorist organizations like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, which have been involved in major attacks such as the 2001 Indian Parliament attack and the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Islamabad, on the other hand, accuses New Delhi of harboring militant activities in the Balochistan area and of human rights abuses in Kashmir. 

Tensions escalated further after India revoked Article 370 in 2019, stripping Jammu and Kashmir of its special status. Islamabad condemned the move and downgraded diplomatic ties, further reducing hopes for bilateral dialogue.

The Definition Problem: 

The definition of terrorism remains a deeply contentious and politically charged issue between India and Pakistan. India maintains a firm and consistent stance that any act of violence targeting civilians or aimed at spreading fear and destabilization, regardless of the cause or motivation behind it, qualifies as terrorism. From India's perspective, there can be no justification for targeting civilians, state institutions, or public order, and those who engage in such activities must be treated as terrorists without exception.

Pakistan, however, draws a sharp distinction between what it refers to as “freedom fighters” and “terrorists.” In its narrative, individuals or groups operating in Jammu and Kashmir against Indian security forces are often portrayed as resisting what Pakistan describes as an "occupation" rather than committing acts of terrorism. Pakistan frames these groups as legitimate insurgents or freedom fighters, claiming they are engaged in a struggle for the right to self-determination for the people of Kashmir, a region whose status remains disputed since the partition of British India in 1947.

This fundamental disagreement extends into international forums as well, where Pakistan lobbies for the global community to recognize Kashmiri groups as part of a legitimate political struggle, while India strongly opposes any such distinctions, arguing that allowing selective definitions creates double standards and undermines the global fight against terrorism. This divergence has complicated bilateral dialogue and efforts at counterterrorism cooperation, reinforcing mutual distrust and impeding any comprehensive peace initiatives.

Funding: 

Terrorist financing in the region is complex. Sources include donations from sympathizers, proceeds from criminal activities like drug trafficking, and alleged support from state actors. India has long accused Pakistan of providing safe havens and support to terrorist groups operating in Kashmir. While Pakistan officially denies these allegations, there have been instances where Pakistani officials have acknowledged past support to militant groups during conflicts such as the Soviet-Afghan war. 

The horrors of April 22, 2025

On April 22, 2025, terrorists belonging to The Resistance Front (TRF), a faction of Lashkar-e-Taiba, attacked Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir, resulting in the deaths of 26 individuals, including 25 Indian tourists and one Nepali citizen. The terrorists targeted a tourist convoy, marking one of the deadliest and horrific attacks on civilians in the region in recent years. TRF claimed responsibility for the attack, and it coincided with a high-profile visit by US Vice President JD Vance to India. 

PM’s visit to Saudi Arabia 

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Saudi Arabia from April 22 to April 23, 2025, at the invitation of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. This marked his third visit to the Kingdom, following earlier trips in 2016 and 2019. The visit aimed to strengthen the India-Saudi Arabia Strategic Partnership, focusing on energy cooperation, defense collaboration, and regional stability. Some of the key objectives of this visit included energy cooperation, defense and security ties, economic and strategic dialogue, and engagement with the Indian Diaspora. 

Unfortunately, the visit was cut short due to a terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam. PM Modi condemned the attack, skipped the official dinner hosted by Saudi Arabia, and returned to India on the night of April 22 to address the situation. The Prime Minister chaired a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CSS) to assess the situation and determine India’s response to the crisis situation. The CCS meeting led to several decisive actions aimed at addressing the immediate security concerns and signaling India's stance to the international community.​ 

MEA’s Decision 

Following April 22, 2025, the Indian government convened a Cabinet Committee on Security (CSS) meeting. Subsequently, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) announced a series of significant measures aimed at Islamabad, reflecting a marked escalation in bilateral tensions. 

1. Diplomatic Measures by New Delhi

• Downgrade of Diplomatic Relations: Following a Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) meeting after April 22, 2025, India decided to downgrade its diplomatic ties with Pakistan.

• Visa Revocations: New Delhi revoked all valid visas issued to Pakistani nationals effective April 27, 2025. Medical visas were temporarily exempted and remained valid until April 29, 2025. Pakistani nationals currently in India were instructed to leave the country before their visa expiration dates.

• Expulsion of Diplomats: India expelled Pakistani diplomats, granting them 48 hours to depart the country.

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2. Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty

• Treaty Suspension: India suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, a pivotal agreement that manages the distribution of water from six rivers between the two countries.

• Impact on Water Sharing: The treaty allocates the eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas, Ravi) to India and the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan. Suspension allows India to withhold vital hydrological data, significantly affecting Pakistan’s agriculture and hydropower sectors.

• Islamabad’s Response: Pakistan strongly condemned the move, warning that any interference with the treaty would be viewed as an "act of war."

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3. Border and Transit Restrictions

• Closure of Wagah Border: India closed the Wagah border crossing, a critical land transit point between the two nations.

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4. Retaliatory Measures by Islamabad

• Trade Suspension: Pakistan suspended all trade relations with India.

• Visa Cancellations: Islamabad canceled all Indian visas.

• Airspace Closure: Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian aircraft. The closure was formalized through a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) issued by Pakistan’s Civil Aviation Authority, effective from April 24, 2025.

Pakistan’s Response 

The Pakistani response was finalized during a high-level National Security Committee (NSC) meeting chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

1. NSC Meeting and Statement:

• Pakistan’s response was finalized during a high-level National Security Committee (NSC) meeting chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

• Key ministers and the chiefs of the Army, Navy, and Air Force participated.

• The NSC accused New Delhi of exploiting the Pahalgam attack for its "narrow political agenda."

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2. Bilateral Agreements Suspended:

• Islamabad announced that all bilateral agreements with India, including the Simla Agreement of 1972, would be held "in abeyance."

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3. Indus Waters Treaty Response:

• Islamabad strongly rejected India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty.

• Pakistan warned that any attempt to obstruct or divert water would be treated as an "act of war," calling it a matter of survival for its 240 million citizens.

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4. Border Closure:

• Islamabad immediately closed the Wagah border crossing, suspending all cross-border movement except for individuals already in Islamabad with valid endorsements (allowed to exit by April 30).

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5. Visa and Diplomatic Measures:

• Suspended all visas issued to Indian nationals under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES), except for Sikh religious pilgrims.

• Indian nationals under SVES were ordered to leave within 48 hours.

• Declared Indian Defence, Naval, and Air Advisers "persona non grata" and instructed them and their support staff to leave by April 30.

• Ordered a reduction in the Indian High Commission's strength in Islamabad, limiting it to 30 diplomats and staff.

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6. Airspace and Trade Suspension:

• Closed Pakistani airspace to all Indian-owned and Indian-operated airlines immediately.

• Suspended all trade with New Delhi, including transit trade involving third countries.

Implications 

The April 22, 2025, attack in Kashmir has sharply escalated tensions between India and Pakistan, leading to major policy shifts by New Delhi. India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty allows it to withhold vital hydrological data and divert river waters, but doing so presents serious challenges, such as the need for major infrastructure projects and environmental risks. Managing the increased water supply will not be simple, and any large-scale diversion could provoke further diplomatic backlash.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s closure of its airspace to Indian aircraft has disrupted international flight routes, forcing airlines to reroute, raising operational costs, and leading to higher airfares for travelers. The Kashmir tourism sector, which had been slowly recovering, has taken a severe hit, with tourist arrivals plummeting and local businesses suffering major financial losses. The recent attack has also impacted the region's economy, particularly the tourism industry in Kashmir, which has seen a decline due to safety concerns. Additionally, Pakistan's closure of its airspace to Indian aircraft has disrupted flight routes, leading to increased operational costs for airlines and higher airfares for passengers.

Beyond the immediate economic impacts, the situation has deepened regional instability, raising the risk of military skirmishes and drawing concern from the international community due to the nuclear capabilities of both nations. Overall, these developments reflect a serious breakdown in previous conflict-management mechanisms and highlight the urgent need for diplomatic engagement to prevent a broader escalation that could destabilize South Asia even further.