The Dalai Lama Dilemma: Tibet’s Faith, China’s Agenda

Introduction

July 6, 2025, marked the 90^th Birthday of the current spiritual head of Budhhism -The Dalai Lama. The event caught the world’s attention as his birthday made headlines not just for the celebrations, but because of his firm assertion of exclusive authority over his succession, stirring tensions and putting the spotlight back on the sensitive Tibet issue with China.

Buddhism, rooted in India’s ancient civilizational ethos and long revered as a symbol of peace and harmony, has re-emerged as a potent tool of cultural diplomacy in today’s shifting geopolitical landscape. As soft power gains prominence in international relations, both India and China are actively invoking their shared Buddhist heritage to revive spiritual and cultural ties across Asia. By aligning themselves with core Buddhist values, these rising global powers seek to position themselves as advocates of peace, dialogue, and goodwill on the world stage. In a region where great religions were born, spiritual diplomacy is fast becoming a bridge that connects hearts, cultures, and strategic interests alike.

Brief History and Significance

The Dalai Lama is the spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism, specifically of the Gelug school, and is believed to be the manifestation of Avalokiteshvara, the Bodhisattva of Compassion. The title “Dalai Lama,” meaning “Ocean of Wisdom,” was first bestowed in the 16th century by the Mongol ruler Altan Khan. For centuries, the Dalai Lama has remained central to Tibetan identity.

Born in 1935, the current 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, was recognised as the reincarnation of his predecessor at the age of two, enthroned in 1940, and assumed political leadership at 15, coinciding with China’s invasion of Tibet in the early 1950s. Following the 1951 treaty that allowed Chinese military presence in Tibet, the region was formally designated the Tibetan Autonomous Region in 1965.

After a failed uprising against Chinese occupation in 1959, the Dalai Lama fled to India and sought refuge in Dharamshala, Himachal Pradesh, where he established the Tibetan government-in-exile. Since then, he has led a non-violent movement for Tibetan autonomy, drawing global attention to the Tibetan cause.

In his book The Voice for the Voiceless, the Dalai Lama reflects on Tibet’s unresolved status under repressive Chinese rule. Highlighting his decades-long struggle, he affirms, “Given that ours is the struggle of a people with a long history and distinct civilisation, it will, if necessary, continue beyond my lifetime.”

From exile, he has worked tirelessly to preserve Tibetan culture and spirituality while elevating Tibetan Buddhism as a universal moral force. In 2011, he voluntarily relinquished his political authority, transferring leadership to the democratically elected Central Tibetan Administration (CTA), thus establishing a unique example of stateless democracy. This transition empowered Tibetans to collectively carry forward their peaceful struggle for freedom.

Awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1989, the Dalai Lama continues to champion Tibetan autonomy through nonviolence and dialogue, with a message of compassion, peace, and human dignity that resonates far beyond Tibet.

The Next Succession Announcement

The 14th Dalai Lama turned 90 on July 6. With his advancing age, the question of his reincarnation has moved to the forefront of both geopolitical and religious discourse, as Beijing seeks to control the centuries-old succession process and shape the future of Tibet.

Traditionally, the next Dalai Lama is identified by senior Tibetan Buddhist monks who search for signs of reincarnation following the death of the previous Dalai Lama. This selection process also involves the Panchen Lama—the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama's spiritual teacher.

As per the tradition, in 1995, Dalai Lama had recognised 6-year-old Gedhun Choekyi Nyima as 11th Panchen Lama, but unfortunately, he was abducted by the Chinese authorities and replaced with a false Lama, Gyaltsen Norbu, a Chinese communist party puppet, who is considered illegitimate by the Tibetan people.

Speaking on his 90th birthday in Dharamshala, the Dalai Lama issued a long-awaited official statement on the question of succession. He asserted that only the Gaden Phodrang Trust holds the authority to recognise his successor, firmly rejecting any involvement by the Chinese government. Lobsang Tenzin, the Trust’s second-highest leader, affirmed, “There will be a 15th Dalai Lama. There will be a 16th.”

China’s Control Mechanisms

Today, China views Tibetan Buddhism and the Dalai Lama’s enduring moral authority as direct threats to its sovereignty over Tibet. In an effort to assert control and suppress Tibetan spiritual autonomy, Beijing has increasingly sought to manipulate the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation process.

Since the 2000s, China has hosted its own international Buddhist gathering, the World Buddhist Forum (WBF), to promote its appointed Panchen Lama as the face of Tibetan Buddhism, aiming to legitimise a version of Buddhism aligned with the Chinese state. The Dalai Lama, however, is excluded from this platform and labelled by Beijing as a “disruptive element.” For China, the Dalai Lama symbolises Tibetan nationalism and resistance. The battle over his succession is not merely about territorial control of Tibet, but a deeper struggle for legitimacy, spiritual, cultural, and political.

Tibetan Buddhism’s monastic and reincarnation traditions are central to a culture shaped by both conquest and exile. China’s attempts to re-engineer this deeply rooted system, described by the Dalai Lama as “outrageous and disgraceful”, pose a serious threat to Tibetan identity. Through the ongoing sinicisation of Tibetan Buddhism, the Chinese government imposes Mandarin in monasteries, monitors monastic life, alters scriptures, and seeks to control reincarnation, effectively erasing traditional religious and cultural practices.

Central to this campaign is Beijing’s drive to dominate the Dalai Lama’s succession process, aiming to impose Chinese nationalism over centuries-old Buddhist traditions. Politically, in the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR), genuine Tibetan authority has been systematically weakened; Tibetan officials operate under unelected Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaders, while religious figures are absorbed into state-run roles.

China's strategy also targets the next generation of Tibetans. Thousands of Tibetan children are placed in state-run boarding schools, where they are taught in Mandarin and separated from their families, religion, and native language. These policies are designed to suppress dissent, dismantle Tibetan identity, and dilute the Dalai Lama’s spiritual and cultural influence.

Ultimately, Beijing's long-term objective is to replace the exiled Dalai Lama with a state-approved successor who aligns with the CCP’s narrative, reinforcing both domestic control and international legitimacy. To justify its approach, China builds global Buddhist networks and frames its control over reincarnation as a form of reform and modernisation.

The Religio-political Battle

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Mao Ning, recently stated that “the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama, Panchen Lama, and other high lamas must follow the golden urn tradition and be approved by Beijing.” She insisted that the entire process must take place within China’s borders. Beijing seeks a Dalai Lama of its own, compliant, controllable, and officially endorsed by the Communist Party. Mao further dismissed the current Dalai Lama as a “political exile engaged in anti-China separatist activity under the cloak of religion,” asserting that he “has no right to represent the Tibetan people at all.”

In defiance of China’s stance, the Dalai Lama has urged Tibetans “not to accept a candidate chosen for political ends by anyone, including those in the People’s Republic of China.” He has also affirmed that his successor will be born in a free country, possibly in India, to ensure spiritual independence from communist control.

Despite international concerns, China continues to deny allegations of repressing Tibetan rights, claiming that its governance ended feudal serfdom and brought development to a previously underdeveloped region.

The Tibetans’ Perspective

Around 140,000 Tibetans living in exile, fear a turbulent transition, viewing the Dalai Lama’s succession plan as crucial to protecting religious freedom and resisting Beijing’s influence. For ordinary Tibetans, the issues are deeply personal, with concerns that the emergence of the rival Dalai Lama, one backed by exile and the other by China, could lead to a division. Dolma Lhamo, an exiled Tibetan woman, expressed, “Many of us have never seen Tibet, but the Dalai Lama gives us roots. His choice matters not just for religion, but for who we are as a people.”

Global Response 

Beyond being the birthplace of Siddhartha Gautama and the host nation of the Dalai Lama, India is home to over 100,000 Tibetan Buddhists who live, study, and work with religious and cultural freedom. The Dalai Lama, widely revered across India, also provides New Delhi with subtle yet significant strategic leverage in its complex relationship with China.

Over the past decade, India’s Neighbourhood Policy has increasingly emphasised shared religious traditions, particularly Buddhism, as a key pillar for fostering deeper ties with neighbouring and East Asian countries. Simultaneously, India has remained committed to preserving the religious and cultural heritage of the Tibetan Buddhist community that has found refuge on its soil. The enduring values of Buddhism have quietly enhanced India’s image as a peaceful, rising power and have served to deepen its soft power diplomacy across Asia.

Meanwhile, China’s atheist, socialist-communist leadership, once openly hostile to religion, with Mao famously calling it “poison” , has undergone a strategic reorientation under President Xi Jinping. Religion has been redefined as a tool of soft power, aligned with Beijing’s broader goals of domestic control and global influence.

Buddhism has become central to this effort. China has integrated it into the Belt and Road Initiative to advance its strategic interests, foster regional trust, and expand influence. President Xi’s symbolic gestures, such as recognising India’s Nalanda University and honouring the Korean monk-prince Kim Gyo-gak, are part of a wider push to revive shared spiritual heritage and present China as a cultural and religious leader. By casting China as a guardian of Buddhism, Xi aims to soften the country’s global image and present it as a harmonious, responsible global power.

Domestically, Beijing frames Buddhism as an “ancient Chinese religion” and promotes religious policies under the banner of freedom, while using them to preserve territorial integrity, control dissent, and ensure stability in sensitive areas such as the Tibet Autonomous Region and other Tibetan-populated regions.

In this context, Tibet has once again drawn global attention amid escalating concerns over the Dalai Lama’s succession and China’s efforts to influence the process. The coming years will be pivotal in shaping the spiritual and political future of Tibet, closely watched by an international community increasingly vocal on the issue.

Conclusion

The question of the Dalai Lama’s succession has moved beyond being an internal Tibetan affair. It now stands as a litmus test for the world’s commitment to defending religious freedom, cultural identity, and a people’s right to shape their own spiritual destiny. China’s efforts to dominate the Dalai Lama succession and exert ideological control over Tibetan Buddhism reflect a broader campaign to absorb Tibet’s cultural and spiritual identity into the state framework.

As the global rivalry with China deepens, democratic nations, including the United States, European powers, and key Asian allies, have reiterated support for Tibetan rights. The U.S. lawmakers have pledged to resist any Chinese interference in the Dalai Lama’s succession, and in 2024, the then US President Joe Biden signed legislation urging China to respond to Tibet’s aspirations for greater autonomy.

For Tibetans, the Dalai Lama is not just a spiritual leader, rather he embodies their identity, continuity, and moral compass. Any attempt to undermine this sacred institution is not simply an attack on tradition; it is a calculated political manoeuvre with profound and enduring spiritual consequences.

The struggle is not just about religion; it's about legitimacy, sovereignty, and regional influence. As Tibet’s spiritual future unfolds, it will likely remain a flashpoint in China's domestic governance and global posture.