THE ‘ABRAHAM ALLIANCE’− POSSIBILITY AND CHALLENGES

The 31 July assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil allegedly by Israel has again brought the turmoil stricken West Asia on the brink of a major war. Adding fuel to the fire were messages emanating from Tehran of taking ‘decisive’ against the ‘aggressor’ (Israel) for its ‘cowardly’ attack.

Following up on the above, the US has bolstered its presence in the region by moving a fighter jet squadron in the region and ordering the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier striker group to the Middle East. In addition, deployment has also been made of additional ballistic missile defence capable cruisers and destroyers as well as land based ballistic missile defence weapons. Such steps have been taken to defend Israel from any potential attack by Iran.

At the same time, Iran witnessed the visit of Sergei Shoigu, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, who met with President Masoud Pezeshkian. Both sides reiterated their commitment to expand and strengthen their bilateral ‘strategic partnership’ in the face of increasing ‘US- led unilateralism.’ This latest convergence of Iran- Russian positions also saw Tehran deploy the Moscow developed Murmansk- BN electromagnetic jamming system against incoming aerial attacks from Israel and the US.  

However, the current write-up focuses on the idea of ‘Abraham Alliance’ proposed by Israeli president Benjamin Netanyahu during his address to the US Congress last month. The idea proposes an alliance between Israel, US, UK, and the states who have recently accorded diplomatic recognition to Israel as part of the 2020 Abraham Accords. The countries who form a part of the Abraham Accords include United Arab Emirates (UAE), Morocco, Bahrain, and Sudan. The above proposed Alliance is aimed at countering the Iranian ‘Axis of Resistance.’

The ‘Axis of Resistance’ includes states as well as non-state actors in the West Asian region who are backed by Iran and engaged in ‘resistance’ or war against the presence of the US and its ‘proxies’ like Israel (and sometimes even including the Western backed Gulf states). The members of the ‘Axis’ include the Assad regime in Syria, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen.

The current crisis beginning from October 2023 was sparked by the Hamas’ sudden attack and the taking of hostages and the Israeli military response hereafter. Added to the mix, were sporadic exchange of fire by Hezbollah across the border with Lebanon and the Houthis’ targeting of container ships across the Sea Lane of Communication (SLOC) in the Red Sea. Besides, along with Haniyeh, it has also been reported that Israel has shot down Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr to which the latter group, like Iran, has promised reprisal.

Coming to the Abraham Alliance, while the US and its partners like the UK will continue to support the Israeli effort against Iran and the Axis, a large question looms over the other ‘purported’ members of the Alliance like Bahrain and the UAE. This uncertainty stems from the past event when during the April Iranian attack on Israel through drones and missiles, Abu Dhabi along with Saudi Arabia had refused to allow their airspaces to be used by US and Tel Aviv for intercepting the Iranian barrage. Instead, both the Arab countries had assisted by sharing intelligence on the Iranian action. The above action by UAE highlights Abu Dhabi’s tightrope walk between maintaining its longstanding ties with the West while also not aggravating the situation. Hence, it is hardly unlikely that Abu Dhabi would be willing to play any sort of role in a military ‘NATO’ kind of alliance against Iran. Besides, UAE’s own ambition to be seen as a ‘humanitarian and economic player’ in the Middle East, especially in post-war Gaza would not be possible in the face of an antagonistic Iran.

While Bahrain has the distinction of being the only West Asian country to have joined the US- led maritime coalition ‘Operation Prosperity Guardian’ against Houthis in 2023, yet Manama has also started the process of reaching out to Iran since the diplomatic impasse between both the countries in 2016. Joining the ‘Abraham Alliance’ would only stymie the attempts at normalization of relations with Tehran.

However, the most important factor preventing the West Asian countries from being full fledged members of the Alliance is the widespread anti- Israeli sentiment prevalent amongst the populations of these countries. Moreover, the recent ruling against Tel Aviv by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) including accusation of conducting genocide in January 2024 and the arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant, Israeli Defence Minister (as well as three Hamas leaders) by the International Criminal Court (ICC) have further added to these sentiments. It should also be noted that the signatories to the Abraham Accords− UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco− had normalized ties with Israel despite simmering protests against the same by the domestic populations of these countries at that time. Now joining a military alliance involving Israel the ‘aggressor’ and its ‘backer’ the US would further inflame such sentiments and might even lead to anti-regime uprisings reminiscent of the 2011 Arab Spring− a nightmare for the above countries. Moreover, Iran would also not miss the opportunity of extending its influence by ‘blessing’ the ‘revolutions’ in these states.  

Considering the above, it would be hardly feasible for Arab members of the Abraham Accords to join the Alliance with Israel. While there also remains the possibility of US pressurizing the above countries through carrot and stick measures to be a part of the Alliance, yet even Washington is aware of the limits of pressure it can exert upon its allies. Given its overstretched commitments from Ukraine to Gaza, the US can hardly afford to alienate allies in any part of the world. Hence, the US non-insistence on its Gulf allies joining Operation Prosperity Guardian or respecting their right not to open airspace.

Hence, the ‘Abraham Alliance’ instead of constituting a new military axis against Iran would comprise of the old trio of Israel- US- UK which intercepted the Iranian barrage in April 2024. While there remains the possibility of indirect assistance of intelligence sharing or humanitarian supply by the other ‘possible’ West Asian members of the Alliance.

Authored By

Mr. Anuurag Khaund

PhD INTERNATIONAL POLITICS (IP),

SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES (SIS),

CENTRAL UNIVERSITY OF GUJARAT (CUG)