Roaring Dragon Charging Elephant: Pragmatic Partners or Reluctant Rivals?

“To have the Dragon and the Elephant come together!”

It has often been the hallmark of turbulent times, that even archaic phrases like “the world, a round of chess” start making sense. Despite being neighbors and heirs to the oldest civilizations to ever grace our planet, India & China have had a turbulent relationship. Decades of war, border disputes, economic conflicts and political disagreements have left their scar on the fabric of these two Asian giants and yet, the unthinkable just happened.

The 25th Shanghai Cooperation Summit, organised in Tianjin, Northern China emerged as  a successful meeting between 20+ nations scattered across Eurasia & Africa. Being the largest summit ever organized in SCO history, it  signals a major bid at dominance by the CCP to their counterparts in the west signalling an attempt at rallying nations into a “Non-Western Solidarity”. The message is clear, Beijing desires to emerge as a global economic leader post the Tariff Crisis.

The chaos as it is unfolding, has brought forth a great reset in global economic order, Washington spat in the face of its GATT commitments, the South China Sea is reaching a boiling point & the Taiwan issue has gained global visibility as the world endlessly devours microchips in the name of technological advancement and yet few acknowledge the vitality of these rare earth elements and the coming storm these very minerals will bring. 

More so, the location of the summit, Tianjin, is another indication of Chinese leadership's political will. Harken back to the colonial era, when India lay subjugated by the British, China too underwent its own “Century of Humiliation”. In 1860, Tianjin was among the first ever land concessions the proud Qing gave up to the Colonial Empires of Europe, with a total of 9 foreign holdings in the district. Located in proximity to the Capital, it serves as Beijing's primary port and thus, a key hub that connects the nation to the world. Home to multiple industries, Tianjin anchors the China-Russia-Mongolia corridor and serves as a vital node in the Eurasian Land Bridge, a “super-hub” of the Belt & Road Initiative. The soil of Tianjin has seen everything, and today is heralded as a glowing beacon of  the Dragon's Industrial Prowess, so much so that there exists a slogan, 

“For modern China, look at Tianjin”

Though the Indian Prime minister, Narendra Modi met Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Kazan last year, the SCO summit carried heightened expectations amid the ever shifting world order. Remarkably, the summit marks Modi's  first visit in 7 years and in turn, both  delegations exchanged in-depth dialogues on Security, Border Issues, Trade, Rare Earth Materials and Global Connectivity, but what remains unclear however is whether these conversations were merely Confidence Building Measures or Tactical Bargaining between the two states. The importance of Minerals & Global trade to the Indian Semiconductor & EV ambitions  cannot be understated and as a result, the coming decades will feel the echoes of all discussed in this summit.

Still, despite the change in perception, both sides are reluctant to disclose specific agreements where de-escalation is concerned. Though great developments have taken place in the recent past which usher India - China relations into a new era, it would not be misplaced for Delhi to exercise great caution to the “weaponisation of dependencies” that the dragon has historically wielded. Interestingly, the Indian Government ensured that the road to Tianjin included a layover in Tokyo first. 

While some say it highlights Mr. Modi's clear priorities when it comes to compliance with trusted partnerships and technological alternatives, it is also a visible nod to India's famous “Multi-Alignment strategy” when it comes to Foreign Policy. The visit may cause some hiccups however as Japan carries a growing mark for Chinese outsourced manufacturing.

The summit also marked a diplomatic win for India as during the summit, Delhi managed to get clear consensus on the Pahalgam Terror attack with all member nations taking a single tone stance against terrorism in all forms and manifestations. Viral videos turn into memes, showcasing the Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif hunched over, his eyes darting over to Modi & Xi having an intense conversation. A clear targeting of Pakistani Agenda, we have now seen a total reversal of the SCO Defence Ministers meet in which Defence Minister Rajnath Singh walked out due  to the lack of a resolution against the Pahalgam terrorist attack.

For the Geopolitical audience in India, one must not confuse this bonhomie with China and the widening political rift with the United States as India’s permanent political stance. India and China still retain thousands of soldiers posted at their borders. China still pushes for creating strategic infrastructure and tactically creating villages across its territory in proximity to the border to legitimize their claim on the region. Additionally, the Chinese People's Air Force is hardening air strips and Beijing still funds Pakistan's military infrastructure. On the other hand, American leadership still  realises India’s importance formulating deep people to people ties and India’s unaffected military pathway.

While extending the friendly hand of cooperation and seeking international alternatives, New Delhi must not forget the larger economic picture. A $100 billion heavy trade deficit looms over its head still. How exactly this economic inequality is to be tackled remains unclear. Coming to multilateral institutions like QUAD, multiple political figures have accused Delhi of hedging, implying that it's  keeping multiple options open to reduce vulnerability in a volatile environment. For this, it is vital to note that India participates in SCO for continental engagement and in QUAD for maritime alignment making this a dual-track approach.

The fact that there exists no binding military obligations in either (unlike NATO) provides India flexibility to navigate the complex political lines in an ever volatile multipolar world. Rooted in India’s traditional non-alignment doctrine, it has slowly evolved  into multi-alignment with India choosing issues instead of sides. 

Thus, at SCO, India opposes initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative while still supporting anti-terrorism and regional trade initiatives. Additionally, when it comes to QUAD, India intentionally avoids making it a “military alliance” and instead, projects it as a “platform for regional cooperation, not containment.” With this strategy in mind, the Elephant aims to handle American unpredictability, Chinese aggression & Russian political maneuvering by keeping one foot in all camps. 

With regards to the Pacific Ocean and its turbulent waters, India’s active participation in the SCO while deepening its QUAD commitments will tilt the Indo-Pacific power balance towards multipolarity rather than strict Cold War era bipolarity. Delhi's stance is clear,  India will not become a junior partner in a US-led containment of China, but rather a swing power capable of engaging both continental and maritime theatres. This in turn complicates Chinese dominance, as Beijing cannot fully isolate India in either sphere.

For the US and allies however, it still ensures that India will remain a pillar of  Indo-Pacific architecture, even if not fully aligned militarily. Overall, one can expect to see a more fluid, less bloc-driven Indo-Pacific, where India’s choices can either balance or recalibrate power equations depending on the issue at stake.

The question that remains now is thus, Will India pursue pragmatic compartmentalisation or gradual disengagement? Only time will tell. Given how chaotic our world is, even experts have a hard time ascertaining what comes next and so, here we are, witnessing what the ancients once called “the world, a round of chess.” For now, the Dragon & the Elephant play warily, partners when needed, rivals by instinct.