Regional Stability at Risk: Pakistan-TTP Clashes Along Afghanistan-Pakistan Border

In the last week of December 2024, tensions have escalated with intense clashes between the Pakistan military and the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, particularly in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region. The TTP, a militant group operating from Afghan soil, has been waging a terrorist insurgency against the Pakistani state, exploiting the porous border and safe havens in Afghanistan to launch deadly attacks. The surge in military activity caused casualties of both military and civilian life.

Background

The Taliban’s rise to power in Afghanistan is complex. After the Soviet invasion in 1979, the US supported anti-Soviet groups, including the mujahideen, which later gave rise to the Taliban. The hardliner Sunni Fundamentalists of Taliban comprising primarily of Afghan Pashtuns, emerged in the 1990s with a radical Islamist ideology. They sought to establish an Islamic emirate governed by their strict interpretation of Sharia law, but their regime was only recognized by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

After 9/11 2001, the US withdrew support to Taliban for sheltering Al-Qaeda personnels and declared a global war on terrorism. They managed to establish the Hamid Karzai government in 2004 and Ashraf Ghani's presidency in 2014. However, Ghani's government was toppled in 2021, marking the Taliban's return to power. This led to a hasty and humiliating US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 and they left behind a vast array of military equipment, including tanks, artillery, Air Force fighter jets, and other advanced military hardware, which has reportedly been seized by the Taliban. They have been using it to bolster their military capabilities and project power in the region using their affiliates like the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Al-qaeda.

The Pakistan factor

The complex and intricate relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban is rooted in history. As claimed by General Parvez Musharraf, the Taliban was created by the Pakistani military and sponsored by the USA to counter the erstwhile USSR’s influence in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989. During this period, Pakistan trained and armed the Taliban.

However, when the USA handed over control to the Taliban in 2021, Islamabad’s initial enthusiasm was short-lived. The Afghan Taliban’s goal of establishing an Emirate governed by strict Sharia Law didn’t align with Pakistan’s military or elite politicians’ objectives.

This led to the formation of the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant alliance created in 2007 to unify opposition against the Pakistani military. The TTP seeks to expel Islamabad’s influence from tribal areas, implement strict sharia law, and drive Coalition troops out of Afghanistan. Its ultimate goal is to establish an Islamic caliphate in Pakistan by the means of opposing Pakistani government and Western influences. Historically, the group has maintained close ties to senior Al-Qaeda leaders.

The TTP’s solidarity is closely tied to the Pashtun population, which inhabits the same mountainous tribal regions on both sides of the Durand Line. The porous international border has allowed for the free movement of people, goods, and ideas, fostering strong cultural, linguistic, and familial ties among the Pashtun population.

They have been responsible for most of the terrorist attacks in Pakistan. Despite being a banned separatist Islamist group, the TTP receives backing from the Afghan Taliban, creating a paradoxical situation given Islamabad’s historical support for the Afghan Taliban.

Current Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Issue

The recent escalation of violence between Pakistan and the Taliban has its roots in a series of events that began on December 21, when the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) attacked a Pakistani military post in the Makin region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, killing 16 soldiers and critically wounding 5.

In retaliation, the Pakistani army conducted an intelligence-led airstrike on December 25, targeting TTP training facilities in Afghanistan’s Pakhtika and Khost areas and claims that the mission resulted in killing of 71 terrorists. However, Kabul asserted that the airstrike resulted in civilian casualties, including women and children, rather than TTP militants, a claim which was also backed by United Nations Missions in Afghanistan (UNAMA).

The situation took a turn for the worse on December 28, when over 15,000 Taliban fighters, armed with American military equipment, marched to the Mir-Ali border between Pak-Afghan. Crossfire broke out, reportedly killing 19 Pakistani soldiers, although some ground sources estimate the toll to be around 50-100.

The city of Bannu in the Waziristan region has a history of Shia-Sunni conflicts, adding another layer of complexity to the situation. Currently, the outskirts of Bannu and regions of Makin and Mir Ali, are under the control of the Afghan Taliban, who claim these areas as “liberated regions.”

Furthermore, the Taliban’s sphere of influence has expanded significantly, with their control now stretching from Quetta in the southwest to Kohat in Peshawar, effectively engulfing a substantial portion of western Pakistan.

Even though the situation at the border de-escalated, tensions persist as the TTP continues to conduct terrorist attacks in Pakistan.

Impact on India

India’s strategic and security interests in Afghanistan are multifaceted and deeply rooted. Despite the absence of a direct border, the 106-kilometer Wakhan Corridor connects the two nations. India considers Afghanistan within its sphere of influence and has invested significantly in infrastructure development and regional security.

Key Aspects of India-Afghanistan Relations:

1.     Trilateral Transit Agreement: Connecting Chabahar port in Iran to Central Asia via Afghanistan, promoting regional stability and economic cooperation.

2.     Counter-Terrorism Cooperation: Collaborative efforts to counter the growing influence of ISIS-Khorasan.

3.     Economic Interests: India’s investments in Afghanistan’s infrastructure development and regional security.

4.     People to people ties: India has established strong bonds with Afghanistan through its swift and generous humanitarian responses, providing critical aid as a first responder, including COVID-19 vaccines, food grains, winter essentials, and earthquake relief assistance, thereby cementing its reputation as a reliable partner, even after India’s hesitation to recognize Taliban as the official administration of Afghanistan.

5.     Good relations with Afghanistan can also act as deterrence for Pakistan to attack India.

Implications of Afghan-Pak Border Clashes on India:

1.     Security Risks: Potential spillover of terrorism and instability into India through porous borders in Jammu and Kashmir.

2.     Regional Instability: Conflict can destabilize the region, affecting India’s economic and strategic interests.

3.     Impact on India’s Afghan Policy: Clashes can limit India’s engagement with Afghanistan, undermining strategic interests and investments.

4.     Pakistan’s Diversionary Tactics: Conflict can be used by Pakistan to shift attention away from domestic issues and towards India.

5.     Refugee Crisis: Prolonged conflict can lead to a massive refugee influx into India, straining resources and infrastructure.

Conclusion

Afghanistan’s shifting balance of power is deeply rooted in its complex history of conquests and invasions, which has profoundly influenced its relationships with neighboring countries. Pakistan, a long-standing ally, was among the first nations to recognize the Taliban’s legitimacy in Afghanistan and has historically held significant sway over the group.

However, the Kabul-Islamabad dynamic has grown increasingly intricate. Despite their historical ties, Kabul’s ongoing support for separatist groups like the TTP, which operate within Pakistan, has created tensions. Recurring border clashes along the Durand Line have further exacerbated the situation, highlighting the paradoxical nature of regional relationships.

The recent surge in violence along the border marks a significant escalation, sparking concerns about regional stability and the looming threat of a broader conflict.