Pawn or Partner? Pakistan’s Role in Riyadh’s New Security Chessboard

“In international politics, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent interests”- Lord Palmerston. This timeless observation could not be more relevant to the latest geopolitical development in West and South Asia: the signing of the Saudi–Pakistan Security Pact, officially known as the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement. For many years, Riyadh and Islamabad have had an unwritten security compact shaped by their mutual needs. Pakistan had stationed troops in the Kingdom since the 1980s, and Saudi oil concessions helped Islamabad weather sanctions in the 1990s. However, until now, this ‘brotherhood’ remained behind the curtains.

In September 2025, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif elevated this relationship by agreeing to a pact that binds them in a mutual defence and long-term strategic cooperation. However, this agreement represents more than bilateral cooperation; it signals the emergence of “Islamic multilateralism:”a new security construct that could fundamentally reshape global alliances. For the first time since the Cold War, two major Islamic nations have come togteher and have created a mutual defense framework explicitly designed to reduce dependence on Western security guarantees while demonstrating power across the critical corridor linking the Arabian Peninsula to South Asia.

Islamic NATO: Provisions of the KSA-Pak Pact

The agreement is backed by a mutual defence clause: “Any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.” This clause, reminiscent of NATO’s Article 5, signals a level of commitment unprecedented in the Gulf–South Asia axis. Several mechanisms that ensure the pact’s permanence:

• Joint Military Committee: A permanent body will be set up to oversee coordination, training exercises, and joint planning.

• Intelligence Sharing: Expansion of counterterrorism and cybersecurity cooperation.

• Military Presence: Pakistan’s deployment of troops in Saudi Arabia is formalised, extending beyond past advisory roles.

• Strategic Ambiguity: While the pact avoids explicit mention of nuclear cooperation, analysts note that Pakistan’s status as a nuclear-armed state provides Riyadh with a de facto “nuclear umbrella.”

The agreement carries undeniable risks such as nuclear anxities, internationalization of domestic or bilateral issues, strained relationships with other regional powers and so on. However, at the same time, it creates an array of opportunity for enhanced deterrence in the region, technological cooperation and strategic rebalancing in the erstwhile unipolar world order. For the broader international community, this agreement serves as a reminder that the post-Cold War era of uncontested American hegemony has come to a definitive end. And it is replaced by a more complex, multipolar order; one in which middle powers forge their own routes to security and prosperity.

Riyadh and Islamabad’s Strategic Imperatives

When Houthi drones punctured Saudi’s supposedly impenetrable air defense system in September 2019, they didn’t just strike the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities but parallely shattered Riyadh's faith in the American security facility. The attack temporarily halved Saudi oil production and consequently the global energy markets went into a turmoil, thus, exposing the vulnerability and dangers of over-reliance on the Western defense systems. This created an immediate necessity for diversification of defense outlets so as to protect national interests and stablize international supply chains.

Further, the regional destabilisation from the war in Gaza to ongoing tensions in Yemen has heightened Saudi’s anxieties. Thus, after six years, this pact with Islamabad allows Riyadh to diversify its security portfolio while elevating its role as the centrepiece of Islamic defence solidarity. For Islamabad, the pact is equally strategic: Saudi Arabia provided Pakistan with $20 billion in investment in 2019, offers oil on deferred payment terms worth billions annually, and hosts over 2.7 million Pakistani workers whose remittances exceeded $7 billion in 2023. This new pact, thus, institutionalizes these informal arrangements, transforming economic dependency into strategic interdependence.

Regional Repercussions

India

For New Delhi, the pact alters South Asia’s strategic equilibirum. India’s longstanding concern has been Pakistan’s leveraging of external alliances to counterbalance Indian power. The idea of a mutual defence clause between Riyadh and Islamabad raises questions about potential Saudi alignment with Pakistan in future crises.

Indian officials, however, are treading cautiously. India imported $52 billion worth of Saudi crude in 2022-23, making it Riyadh's largest customer. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has assured his Indian counterparts that this defense cooperation will not affect trade or energy relationships. However, India’s strategic community views this agreement as compounding concerns about the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Pakistan's growing list of external security partners.

Israel

For Israel, the pact is deeply unsettling. The possible expansion of Pakistan into Riyadh presents a considerable challenge to Israel’s long-held regional nuclear monopoly. Israeli officials have voiced worries that Saudi Arabia's efforts to diversify its security may unintentionally bolster Hamas or other militant groups. The pact may also complicate U.S.-led efforts to normalise Saudi–Israeli relations, since Riyadh now possesses alternative security assurances that reduce its dependence on Washington’s mediation.

Iran

Scholars suggest that the pact's most dangerous implications concern Iran. Tehran has invested decades of money and back-channel diplomacy to build proxy networks with Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen, thus creating a “ring of fire” around Saudi Arabia. Pakistan’s formal entry into this competition will fundamentally alter the strategic balance, potentially bringing nuclear capabilities within Iran’s sphere of concern.

China and Russia

Both Beijing and Moscow stand to benefit from this pact. China, already the top trading partner, may see opportunities for triangular cooperation with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Russia, too, could position itself as an arms supplier, further loosening Western dominance over Gulf defence markets.

Domestic Politics: The Narrative Wars

In Pakistan, the pact feeds into a powerful nationalist narrative: the country as the “shield of the Muslim world.” Domestic advocates showcase this as a time of renewed pride following years of economic difficulties and political turmoil. Conversely, the critics contend that Islamabad may find itself embroiled in Middle Eastern conflicts with minimal advantage.

In Saudi Arabia, the agreement strengthens Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s bid to recast the kingdom as an oil powerhouse and a security leader in the Islamic world. Popular reception appears broadly supportive, though some clerical and nationalist factions worry about overreliance on Pakistan’s military capacity.

Economic Underpinnings

In addition to defence, the agreement has significant economic foundations. Saudi Arabia has pledged to offer new investment packages and oil financing facilities to help Pakistan with its persistent foreign exchange shortages, giving Islamabad the much-needed respite during a period of economic instability. This part of the deal demonstrates that Riyadh's support goes beyond military cooperation by further integrating Pakistan into its economy.

Simultaneously, Saudi officials have made concerted efforts to assure key partners, especially India, that the continuity of energy flows will be maintained without disruption.

Despite worries that a closer defence cooperation with Pakistan would complicate regional energy dynamics, Riyadh has insisted that the arrangement will not affect Saudi oil supplies to India and other international clients. In addition to offering immediate financial relief and energy continuity, the deal paves the way for greater trade and industrial collaboration. By providing a forum for defence-industrial partnership, the joint military committee may be able to bring Saudi funding to Pakistan's faltering military research and development industry and open up new avenues for technological development.

Strategic Risks and Prospective Gains

The pact introduces a set of strategic risks alongside its promises. The danger of nuclear tensions becoming ‘local/regional’ is the main contestation. The idea that Saudi Arabia might profit from a de facto Pakistani ‘atomic umbrella’ may increase proliferation pressures and jeopardise the already precarious Middle Eastern nuclear order, even though the agreement makes no mention of nuclear cooperation specifically. Another risk is the possibility of overextending itself: Saudi Arabia may end up entangled in the tense rivalries of South Asia, while Pakistan may get involved in Arabian Peninsula conflicts that are not directly related to its national interests. Both states may face the challenge of overextending their resources and political capital if the agreement leads them into one another's security dilemmas.

On the other hand, the agreement also offers unique opportunities. The most immediate is the potential for collective deterrence. The agreement may deter adversarial actors like the Houthis in Yemen or extremist organisations in South Asia from exploiting either partner's weaknesses by demonstrating solidarity. Additionally, there is room for technological cooperation in domains like cybersecurity, drones, and missile defence systems- where Pakistani and Saudi capital could complement one another. If handled well, the deal could provide other Muslim-majority nations with a cooperative security model, providing an Islamic substitute for the Gulf's Western-dominated security arrangements.

Broader Global Implications

The Saudi–Pakistan pact carries ramifications that reach well beyond their respective national borders. Western authorities are raising concerns regarding the deterioration of nuclear restraint standards. Because of the idea of a collective deterrence, the lack of direct nuclear transfers nevertheless affects the legitimacy of current non-proliferation regimes. The deal poses a complex question for the US: should Washington increase its Gulf security obligations to preserve its power, or should it settle for a more minor role as Riyadh expands its coalitions?

Indeed, the pact could accelerate Saudi Arabia’s pivot toward multi-alignment, as the kingdom seeks to balance ties with the U.S., China, Russia, and its Islamic partners simultaneously. In forums such as the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and BRICS, Riyadh and Islamabad could leverage their partnership to push for a multipolar global order that reflects their shared interests and aspirations.

Conclusion

The Saudi–Pakistan Security Pact transforms Gulf and South Asian geopolitics. It institutionalises a relationship once governed by informal understandings, embedding mutual defence into both nations’ strategic DNA.

The pact carries undeniable risks, say, heightened nuclear anxieties, potential entanglement in conflicts, and strained ties with regional powers. Yet it also opens opportunities for stronger deterrence, enhanced cooperation, and a rebalancing of security responsibilities in an era of U.S. retrenchment.

The path forward for regional and global stakeholders must emphasise diplomacy, risk reduction, and economic cooperation. India and Israel should engage Riyadh to address their security concerns. The U.S. should not withdraw but recalibrate, working with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to integrate this pact into a broader architecture of regional stability.

The agreement highlights that interests, rather than friendships, are the primary motivators in international politics. In a volatile region, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have bound their fates more tightly together, not just for security, survival, and status in a shifting world order.