How did Trudeau’s foreign policy fail?

In 2015 Justin Trudeau upon winning a majority in the federal election, said “Canada is back,” promising a brighter future for the country. He created an image of inclusivity, of transparent and progressive politics and captured global attention with his youthful energy. But in the decade that he has been prime minister, his approach towards Canadian foreign policy hasnt always garnered positive results.

LOSS OF NON-PERMENANT MEMBER SEAT AT SECURITY COUNCIL

Trudeau promised to get Canada the global influence that was eroded off before his victory. When Canada’s second attempt at a non-permanent member seat failed for the UNSC, questions about its foreign policy messaging were raised. Canada was competing against Ireland and Norway, two smaller nations with strong reputations for diplomacy and multilateral cooperation. Both these nations started their campaigns much earlier and fostered better diplomatic relations with African and Caribbean nations. They were also very consistent in aid provision and climate action. Canada ranked 68th in aid for international assistance in 2020, their spoken commitment towards climate action seemed hollow with their strong support for the Trans Mountain oil pipeline. More inconsistencies were seen with their claims of prioritizing human rights among other policy promises.

ROW WITH INDIA

Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian citizen and Khalistani separatist was shot dead outside a Gurudwara in Surrey, British Columbia by two masked men. India had marked him to be a terrorist in 2020 and responsible for orchestrating violent acts in India. Trudeau accused the Indian Government and its agents of being involved in this assassination. India retaliated to this by asking for solid proof or a ‘shred of evidence’ which was not made available to them. This ultimately led to a diplomatic tit-for-tat where Canada expelled India’s head of Intelligence operations there and India expelled a senior Canadian diplomat. India also suspended trade talks with Canada which jeopardized potential investments and collaborations, in sectors like technology, agriculture, and clean energy. Further raising tensions, India paused its visa services for Canadians and issued a travel advise alerting its nationals to the growing anti-Indian sentiment in Canada. India is no longer a country with a weak international influence, it is a leader in the Global South and publicly accusing it for such a crime is a very high-risk move on Trudeau’s part. India’s envoy to Canada - Sanjay Varma, upon his return to New Delhi said that it was India that had shared evidence on extremist groups that were operating on Canadian soil but neither the government or authorities took any action on it. Canada’s long-standing failure to address India’s concerns over Khalistani extremism weakened Trudeau’s moral high ground.

UNEASY NEIGHBOUR RELATIONS

Trudeau is said to have had uneasy relations, particularly with US President Donald Trump. Neigbour relations were hoped to be better under Biden but reality said otherwise. Now with Trump back in power what is to entail for Canada and it’s largest trading partner? Among other issues Canada has had disagreements with US over trade, climate, defence and more. Under Trump, The NAFTA( North Atlantic Free Trde Agreement) was revised which Canada had reluctantly participated in. The new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement was insulting to Canada as Trump imposed steel and aluminium tariffs on its ‘close ally,’ this was responded to by retaliatory tariffs on US goods. Trudeau also faced lot of domestic backlash for making concessions and changes to market access in certain industries like dairy.

Despite Trudeau’s international commitments to climate action, his government had strongly promoted a Keystone XL pipeline project that was designed to carry Canadian oil to US refineries. This was shut down and cancelled by the Biden administration as it did not align with their climate policy. Trudeau has faced criticism domestically for not pushing back harder against U.S. policies perceived as harmful to Canadian interests.

ALIENATING ALLIES

Apart from India, China and Saudi Arabia were two key allies that were alienated by his erratic foreign policy. Canada has selectively addressed human rights issues according to their convenience. In 2014 a $15 billion deal was made with Saudi to export Light armored vehicles which remains the biggest arms deal in Canadian history. When Trudeau was elected in 2015 he was seen defending the deal stating contractual agreements but Human Rights Organizations around the world heavily criticised it as Canadian weapons would be used to aid Saudi Arabia in committing war crimes in Yemen. Later when Canada started taking a stronger stance on Human Rights Abuses in Saudi, such as the repression of women right’s activist and condemning the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul’s Saudi consulate. The Saudi responded harshly by expelling Candian Ambassador from Riyadh and calling their’s back from Ottawa. Alongside this they also stopped all state run airlines’ flights to and fro Canada and froze all new trade and investment.

When Trudeau took to office he looked to deepen ties with China economically, culturally and multilaterally. But a turning point in their relations was the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver. He was detained on request of United States for violation of sanctions against Iran. China was infuriated with this extradition treaty and saw it as a political move. In retaliation they detained the ‘Two Michaels’- Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor who stayed in Chinese jails for over 1000 days till Meng’s case was resolved. Caught in between escalating US-China tensions, Canada was also struck with trade restrictions by China on various export goods. His government’s indecision on issues like banning Huawei from Canada’s 5G network further undermined his China policy.

MISALIGNING DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE COMMITMENTS

There is a dissonance in Canada’s domestic energy policy and international climate commitments. Canada is a signatory to the Paris Agreement signing to lowering Greenhouse emissions to 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2030. It has also committed to net zero emissions by 2050 and cutting down methane emissions from oil and gas sectors by 75% till 2030. All of this has been difficult to achieve due to domestic energy priorities. The Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion was bought by Canada in 2018 for its expansion and transport of Alberta oil to global markets, primarily in Asia. Trudeau claims that this will help generate revenue to invest in clean energy. Oil Sands production and the Coastal Gaslink Pipeline both have been criticised for the environmental impact they hold and how these three projects undermine Canada’s climate credibility with contradicting promises. Environmental groups accuse Trudeau of "greenwashing" by promoting Canada as a climate leader while expanding fossil fuel infrastructure.

Justin Trudeau's foreign policy challenges stem from a blend of overly ambitious goals, inconsistent choices, and poor handling of critical international relationships. There has been a stark difference in rhetoric and reality, although his focus on multilateralism, climate leadership, and human rights struck a chord with many, the inability to translate these principles into tangible results has overshadowed his global legacy. With Jagmeet Singh, an ex-ally of Trudeau and current leader of The New Democratic Party stating to move a no-confidence motion on Trudeau when the House opens in January, Trudeau’s future seems uncertain. For Canada to thrive on the world stage, it must embrace a more calculated and pragmatic strategy that harmonizes its values with the complexities of international geopolitics.