Fragile Truce: Examining the Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Deal

Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza after 15 months of fighting that began with an October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas that claimed the lives of about 1,200 people. The accord was approved by Israel's 24-member cabinet on Saturday and is anticipated to be implemented in three stages. The U.S., Qatar, and Egypt mediated negotiations that resulted in the agreement, which took effect on Sunday. If it holds, it would give Gaza, the small strip of land along the Mediterranean Sea, much-needed relief. Over the past 15 months, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) have bombed Gaza nonstop, killing over 46,000 Palestinians and uprooting nearly the entire population.

The Terms of the Deal

There will be three stages to the deal's implementation. Israel will liberate about 1,000 Palestinian security inmates during the 42-day first phase, while Hamas will release 33 hostages, the majority of whom are still alive. Additionally, Israel will permit roughly 600 trucks of humanitarian aid to enter the enclave daily and partially remove the IDF from Gaza. It is anticipated that the IDF will leave the south, where the majority of the enclave's population has been forced, and the northern part of Gaza, which has been subjected to intense Israeli shelling since Day 1 of the conflict, via the Netzarim Corridor. Some of the displaced Gazans could relocate from the south and centre to the north if Israeli forces left Netzarim.

However, Israeli troops would stay in the Philadelphi Corridor on the Rafah crossing during the first phase, meaning Israel will keep an eye on Gaza's border with Egypt. Discussions for the second phase are anticipated to start on the sixteenth day of the first phase. Israeli troops would remain in Philadelphi and certain Gaza buffer zones, while 65 captives will remain in Hamas's custody if the first phase goes according to plan. The majority of the surviving hostages must be freed by Hamas in the second phase, and both parties must announce a definitive halt to hostilities. Discussions about the "day after" will be part of the third phase.

The Larger Context

The agreement that was made eight months ago and the one that was accepted by both parties are substantially the same. Hamas had previously declared that it would agree to a deal if the fighting was ended permanently. Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, rejected the deal in May and declared that Israel would keep up its military campaign in Gaza until its goals were achieved. Since then, however, a lot has changed in the area. Israel today thinks it has a stronger position in the region. Israeli attacks have cost Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group, the majority of its top officials. Yahya Sinwar is among the Hamas leaders who have been slain by the IDF. Targeting the Islamic Republic's air defences and other military installations, Israel launched a huge airstrike in October; Iran has not yet retaliated. More significantly, Iran's alleged "axis of resistance" in West Asia has been further undermined by the overthrow of the Assad government in Syria. Syria under Mr. Assad served as a land bridge connecting Iran and Hezbollah. The disruption of this land bridge will make it harder for Hezbollah to re-arm. Additionally, these events have improved Mr. Netanyahu's domestic political status.

He most likely changed his mind regarding an agreement with Hamas as a result of these circumstances. That's not all, though. Israel failed to achieve its stated goals in Gaza after months of fighting. Mr. Netanyahu claimed that Israel would destroy Hamas when he declared war. Although Hamas's terrorist infrastructure has been weakened by Israeli attacks, the group has rebranded itself as an insurgency, which was its initial form. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently stated that the United States believed Hamas had recruited as many militants as it had lost. Israel's authorities may have adopted a more practical stance of halting the war and releasing the prisoners as a result of the country's incapacity to achieve its goals by armed means. The Trump element comes next.

The Invisible Hand: United States

Although the Biden administration has long advocated for a truce, it has also fully supported Israel's war in Gaza. Washington still provides Israel with arms and diplomatic protection in international fora. Despite Washington's public and private diplomatic calls for a ceasefire, Israel persisted in the war because Mr. Biden refused to apply effective pressure techniques. However, Mr. Biden may now assert that a ceasefire was achieved just a few days prior to his departure from the White House. According to Israeli and Arab media, the Trump factor was also a significant issue.

Prior to his inauguration as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, Donald Trump had threatened that "all hell will break loose" if an agreement between Israel and Hamas could not be reached. Last week, Steve Witkoff, Mr. Trump's ambassador to West Asia, met with the Israeli leadership and the negotiators. According to the Times of Israel, which cited Arab officials, Mr. Witkoff accomplished more in a single meeting than President Biden did in the entire year.

Mr. Trump's pro-Israel stances are well-known. However, if he were to return to the White House, he had pledged throughout his campaign to halt the hostilities in Ukraine and West Asia. Aside from the humanitarian aspect, West Asia would benefit from some stability if the war ended. Mr. Trump might object to the United States being dragged into yet another protracted conflict in the area. Additionally, the Houthis of Yemen might cease bombing Israel and ships traversing the Red Sea if the Israel-Hamas conflict ceases. In recent months, Israel and the United States have both launched airstrikes against the Houthis, but their attacks have not been halted.

The Practicality of the Deal

The first phase, which has a good probability of being implemented, is currently the focus of both sides. More hostages could be traded for inmates in the second phase. However, Phase 3 would be the true obstacle. Hamas has called for Israel to remove all of its troops from Gaza. Israel now understands that it cannot destroy Hamas because the group will always exist. Practically speaking, Israel does not wish to see Hamas continue to rule or fight in Gaza.

This leaves Israel with a quandary. Hamas would continue to operate as a militant insurgency in Gaza if it consented to withdraw from the conflict. There won't be a long-term peace if Israel stays in Gaza, and an attrition-based war will continue.