EMERGING TRENDS IN INDIAN POLITICS

The thumping victory of BJP led Mahayuti alliance has sent shockwave throughout the opposition. After dismal performance of BJP in general election, the victory in Haryana and Maharashtra has given it much needed fillip. And at the same time, it has even created shocks for opposition which is back with its old excuse of blaming EVM. At one hand, the Indian opposition is busy criticising Election Commission of India, on the other the American entrepreneur appreciated the Indian election system how fast it has counted 650 million votes in a day whereas America is still busy counting its votes.

The focus today is not opposition rather two major trends emerging in the Indian electoral strategy. After the 2024 general elections, BJP seems to have learnt its lesson from what we can say in congress coterie’s words, ’atmamanthan’. It has course corrected itself and is now doing ‘whatever it takes’ to win. But the trends not stay limited to BJP rather it is seen across the political spectrum in all the assembly elections post general elections.

WOMEN CENTRIC SOCIALIST POPULISM

From Ladki Behan Yojana of Maharashtra to Maiya Samman yojana of Jharkhand, we are noticing the rising trend of luring women voters with cash doles. The importance of women bloc as voter rising has been recognised now since last 3 years. Modi was once known for his popularity among the women voters leading him to significant victories. But then all the parties have recognised the significance of women as voters and started employing different tactics to win those votes.

Women today are not living under the shadow of their husband or father, at least electorally. There was a time when women would vote as directed by the men of the house and being least concerned about politics. From that stage, the next development was women took directions from male members but voted as they wished. And now we are transitioning to women actively voting their choices. This political development of women has much to do with 33% reservation granted to women at panchayats and municipalities. Obviously now we are transitioning to a phase where women would ask for equal political rights as their male counterpart and not only be recognised as voter but also leaders.

 But we are yet in the transition phase and women are still majorly recognised as voters. The importance of women as an all together a different bloc, beyond caste, religion and class has increased significantly in past 5 years. Women was always seen from the same caste, class and religion lens by the strategists. Now they have been recognised as another important section of voters having a voting pattern different from others’ voting pattern.

Attracting women voters is now at the back of the mind of each politician. Socialism which has become the DNA of Indian society, thanks to license raj and Nehruvian era, is the obvious choice of policy makers then. Plus enters populist measures which is the trend in worldwide politics now, thanks to transition from industrial revolution to digital revolution pushing many out of their jobs.

The obvious choice of policy makers becomes giving direct benefits to each and every women. Undoubtedly this is no way empowering women, rather creating enabling conditions for them to realise economic and social democracy would be a better way. But we won’t delve into it now. The credit for this employing direct cash doles to women goes to Ex-chief minister of Madhya Pradesh, Shivrajsingh Chauhan. He was the one who employed it first time successfully at a massive scale just before the general elections. And he even got the benefits in the general election. Madhya Pradesh was the only one state where BJP increased its number of seat when it had its tally decreased in all other states.

This success of Madhya Pradesh and BJP’s abysmal performance forced them to adopt this socialist populist measure. And since, every other party, every other state government has been bringing one or other version of the scheme, despite the huge financial burden. By such schemes, we are undoubtedly increasing political democracy for women, but if our ‘Behan is Ladli to us’, we should also thrive for their social and economic development.

LOCALISATION OF FACE

The second trend we have been noticing is more recent phenomenon, seen only after general elections, first employed by BJP in Haryana. BJP fielded Modi in all the assembly elections before general elections. Modi asked people to vote on his face. But the benefits of it had started depleting and severely reduced in the general elections where the only face was Modi.

Thus BJP employed change of tactic in Haryana assembly elections. The number of rallies by Modi significantly decreased. The local faces were given prominence. What we noted was a significant change in banners at constituency level. Earlier the order of size of portrait on a banner from biggest to smallest, used to be Modi having the biggest portrait and the candidate having the smallest one. Whereas in Haryana and Maharashtra elections, the local candidate had the biggest portrait and a significant amount of other leaders including national party president, state party president, state chief minister having a similar size of portrait by the side.

The local factors got prominence at local level and state level factors were the one raised at the rallies by the leaders unlike earlier topics like Pakistan, G20 etc. The election engineering tools were also employed heavily at each constituency level which resulted to unexpected win of BJP in Jat dominated seats of Haryana and Marathwada in Maharashtra.

And it was adopted by congress too in the Maharashtra elections. The number of rallies by central leadership were very low. Local leaders like nana patole got prominence. Therefore, elections were fought on each constituency level. The prominence and importance of street level power is back in Indian politics with it.  Each constituency has its own local issues, local power, local campaign, local strategy and the local faces.

These two trends are worth noting and will only grow in the elections to come. And it even has its own benefits. First one will lead to women empowerment even though if only in political sphere. Second will lead to decentralisation of power and authority resulting in more and more democratisation, giving space to local leaders to rise.