CPEC: Analysis of the Cracks in the Corridor

Amid the escalations along the India-Pakistan border, a noteworthy political statement has emerged that may influence regional dynamics. On Wednesday, Baloch leader Mir Yar Baloch issued a formal declaration of support for the people of India. “The people of the Democratic Republic of Balochistan come to their full support to the people of Bharat,” he stated.

Background

Balochistan is Pakistan's largest yet least populated province, located in the southwestern region of the country. It shares borders with Iran and Afghanistan, giving it considerable strategic importance. The population of Balochistan[1]  primarily comprises tribal communities, mainly from the Bugti, Marri, and Mengal tribes.

The roots of the conflict can be traced back to March 1948, when the independent ruler of Balochistan was compelled to sign a merger agreement under pressure from the Pakistani establishment. Tensions have simmered ever since, eventually escalating into an insurgency in the early 2000s.

The core of the conflict lies in the conception of Pakistan as a culturally and ethnically homogeneous state. This narrative has often marginalized the Baloch population in favour of the dominant Punjabi ethnic group. The issue also reflects the federal government's centralized approach to governance. Contemporary conflict drivers include the development of the Gwadar mega-port and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), both of which have been perceived as projects that undermine local autonomy and economic rights in order to benefit other regions of the country.

Balochistan's long coastline along the Arabian Sea, and the strategic potential of Gwadar as an economic hub, have further heightened its geopolitical significance.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project is a part of larger initiative of China known as Belt and Road Initiative. It was launched in 2015 with signing of approximately 50 agreements and MOUs of around $46 Billion. The goal of the CPEC is to transform Pakistan’s economy and improve regional connectivity by linking China’s western Xinjiang province to Gwadar port in Balochistan.

This route, sometimes referred to as a new Silk Road to the Strait of Hormuz offers China an alternative to the Strait of Malacca and the contested South China Sea. It is a project that would benefit both the countries. Hence, the Gwadar port in Balochistan has a significant part to play in the whole project.

Challenges and Recent Developments

 Security remains one of the most significant challenges to the success of CPEC. In response, the federal government has established a Special Security Division within the Pakistan Army to protect both Pakistani and Chinese personnel working on the project. However, security threats, particularly from the Baloch insurgency, continue to hamper progress.

The instability is not limited to Balochistan. Regions such as Gilgit-Baltistan have also seen increased militant activity, with groups like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and other extremist factions carrying out attacks. These threats have contributed to sluggish investment and slow-paced development of CPEC infrastructure.

In a notable incident in March 2025, the Jaffar Express, a Pakistani passenger train travelling from Quetta to Peshawar with approximately 400 passengers on board, was hijacked by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA). It was later revealed that around 100 Pakistani Army personnel were on the train. The operation resulted in the death of 26 hostages. Other incidents include a bomb blast near Karachi’s Jinnah International Airport on October 7, 2024, which killed two Chinese nationals. The BLA later claimed responsibility for the attack.

India's Stand and the Way Ahead

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passes through the Gilgit-Baltistan region, which lies in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK), a territory claimed by India. From New Delhi’s perspective, the CPEC constitutes a violation of India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

India’s opposition to the project is also informed by broader strategic concerns, particularly in the context of its strained relationship with China. There are apprehensions that the Gwadar port, a key node in the CPEC framework, could be developed into a Chinese maritime base in the future, thereby increasing China’s military presence in the Indian Ocean region.

India has, in recent years, also extended rhetorical support to the people of Balochistan. During the Independence Day speech on 15th August 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi publicly accused Pakistan of committing human rights violations in Balochistan. This marked a rare instance of India officially acknowledging the internal dissent within Pakistan.

The Prime Minister’s remarks were widely noted and reportedly welcomed by sections of the Baloch population. In contrast to Pakistan’s allegations regarding Indian actions in Kashmir, which often lack traction among Kashmiris themselves, the response from Baloch voices appeared more affirmative. This has opened up space for India to use the Balochistan issue as a counterpoint in regional diplomacy.

Going forward, India could consider leveraging Balochistan-related developments at international forums to highlight internal challenges within Pakistan. While maintaining its principled opposition to CPEC, particularly in partnership with like-minded countries such as the United States, India can continue to advocate for the political and human rights of the Baloch  people. This dual-track approach allows India to maintain strategic consistency while aligning itself with broader regional concerns over sovereignty, security, and development.