Climate change and its nexus with terrorism: An Overview

Introduction-

Firstly, climate change and its nexus with terrorism is dealing with Ecoterrorism. What is ecoterrorism? Ecoterrorism refers to the use of violence of a criminal nature against innocent victims or property for environmental-political reasons. Often of a symbolic nature, acts of ecoterrorism are usually committed by individuals who believe that the exploitation of natural resources and despoliation of the environment is becoming so severe that action outside of conventional legal and environmental channels is required. According to the United Environmental Protection Agency, climate change is "any significant change in the measure of climate lasting for an extended period.” It also includes other aspects such as increased ocean acidification, extreme weather events, shifting ecosystem characteristics and varying precipitation patterns. Meanwhile, the latest Ecological Threat Report (ETR 2023) points out that of the 221 independent countries under study, at least 66 faces one severe ecological threat and forty-five per cent of the countries in the report faces a high or severe threat report. Of special concern is the Sub-Saharan African region of which the population is predicted to rise to 2.2 billion by 2050 which is an increase of more than 60 percent and will greatly increase the pressure on food and water. The same report also points out the correlation between conflict and climate change citing that increasing food insecurity increases the risk of conflict by 36 per cent, increasing natural hazard exposure increases the risk of conflict by 21 per cent and increasing the water risk increases the risk of conflict by 18 per cent. The empirical evidence of the same is also provided in the same report through the incidents happening across the world: Nile River dam issue, Mekong River dam issue, Sahel region issue, Syrian issue, and Iraq issue among others.

On the other hand, the Global Terrorism Index compiled by the Institute of Economic and Peace points out that though the deaths from terrorism-related incidents decrease, the brutality of these terrorist incidents increases in the period under study. The Islamic States and its affiliates, Al-Shabab and BLA emerged to be the most dangerous terrorist group in the period all of which operates in the Sahel region and MENA region. Coincidentally this portion of the world also faces the worst effect of climate change in the world. The changing climatic condition aided by weak governance structure and its effects; food scarcity, water scarcity, healthcare, step population growth, and unemployment of large number of youths provides a breeding ground for conflict and terrorism in various parts of the world today. This Article will analyse the nexus between climate change and terrorism in two of the most conflict-prone regions in the world.  

Sahel Region, Syria are two prone areas in the world. Here, in this article, we focus on these two areas in the world.

Ø Area study-

1)      Sahel Region:

The Sahel is a semi-arid region in western and north-central Africa comprising ten countries; Burkina Faso, Cameron, Chad, Gambia, Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal. The region is characterised by political instability, weak governance structure, the prevalence of extremely ideological terrorist groups, extreme climate change-induced phenomena such as droughts, irregular rainfall leading to flash floods, rapid decline in groundwater, rapid loss of green pastoral areas, migration, ethnic conflicts between various tribal groups. It is the most conflict-prone region in the world according to GTI 2022. In recent times the region has become the focus of terrorist groups such as the Islamic State through its various regional affiliates and regional terrorist groups. While considering the prevailing situation in the region, it can be said that Lake Chad is an important point to consider. Lake Chad is one of Africa's largest over 30 million people in Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria. For centuries, the lake has supported agricultural production and has been a lifeline for fishing, crop farming, and livestock production—the mainstays of the region’s economy. Lake Chad has also been a valuable water resource for those living in the catchment communities. Crop, livestock, and fish production has supported local economies in terms of income generation and household consumption. However, over the last six decades, climate variability has significantly depleted the size of the lake and its resources. In the 1960s, Lake Chad had an area of more than 26,000km. However, by 1997 it had shrunk to less than 1,500 km and dwindled further to 1,350 km by 2014. The average annual rainfall in the area has dropped from 320 millimetres to 210 millimetres. The two major rivers that flow into the lake—the Chari River, which originates in the Central African plateau and provides the lake with 90 per cent of its waters, and the Komadugu- Yobe River, which provides about five per cent have diminished significantly. This devastating change in the lake's catchment area induced by climate change has resulted in the loss of livelihood of many people who have previously engaged in fishing and agriculture in the lake's basin area leading to massive food insecurity. Also exacerbating the situation is the rapid increase in population in the system, the educational system, and weak governmental mechanisms to cope with the emergent situation.

It is further estimated that by 2030 there will be around 80 million people who will be dependent on the lake's resources which is a massive increase considering the 30 million people who are dependent on the lake's resources at present. All these reasons have contributed to massive migration, competition for scarce resources between the various communities in the region, food insecurity, poor health conditions of the people; malnutrition, contagious disease, exploitation by the government authorities owing to its weak structure, non-state actors emerging in the region and expansion of operation of the international terrorist group in the region. Of prominence, while considering the nexus between climate change and conflict in the region is Boko Haram. Another notorious group operating in the region is the Islamic State of West Africa Province which is a regional affiliate of the Islamic State. It is a Sunni Islamic extremist group with the area of operation being northeastern Nigeria, southern Lake Chad Basin, Nigeria's northern border with Cameroon and Niger.

2)     Syria Region:

As supported by facts and chronology of events that happened in the years preceding the 2011 onset of conflict in Syria, we can say that climate change is also an important factor in the prevailing situation in Syria. Syria faced its worst drought in the year 2006 lasting for more than five years. It ruined many farms and forced as many as 1.5 million rural citizens to crowd into cities and disseminate the country's life-stocks. It also caused the scarcity of water and made food more expensive thus creating suffering and social chaos leading to the initial unrest in the region. The situation in the region as proposed by the scientists is caused by global warming which exacerbates the historic drought due to the potentially permanent change to wind and rainfall pattern. The resultant situation in the region has given rise to three main developments in the region; the rise of ISIS, the migrant crisis, and the resulting political upheaval in the eastern European region.

In most of the conflicts that had happened in the country, water has been weaponised by each of the factions fighting in the war. Sometimes, the non-state actors control the major water bodies restricting their uses and causing concern for the local population or the government. Instances are also there whereby the non-state actors make the water unusable leading to a massive psychological impact on the masses at large. A non-state actor also uses water as a context to recruit more manpower promising more access to it. This is evident in the incident that had happened the neighbouring Iraq whereby IS controlled a Dam at Fajullah restricting at times the flow of water and at times sudden discharge of the water resulting in an artificial flood which displaces thousands of people and cause the loss of resources worth millions of dollars.

Conclusion-  

From the above brief of the situation in the Sahel region and Syria, we can conclude four main points concerning the nexus of climate change and terrorism.

• Climate change worsens the livelihood conditions of the people: Though this proposition is not true for all the regions of the world it is especially true for the developing countries. For nations which depend heavily on agriculture and allied industry climate change has a huge impact on the nation's economy. This is further worsened in countries which faced corruption and weak governance structures beforehand. Climate change leads to the change of means of livelihood of the people just as in the case of the region in the basin of Lake Chad in Africa. In developing countries which have limited means to earn livelihood people take up arms to demand money, to control scarce resources, and even to compete among the various ethnic groups. It is in this situation the non-state actors take advantage to expand their manpower and operation. The Boko-Haram in Nigeria in the promise of a better life for the unemployed youths in the vicinity of the Lake Chad region recruits more people into their camps similar can be said of the ISWA provinces which also use the menace of unemployment and loss of livelihood of the people to recruit more people. Another interesting fact is that these non-state actors sometimes restrict and get hold of the resource base of a region and exercise monopoly and authority of the region also thus worsening the situation of the already stressed group.

• Climate change leads to massive migration: For the people facing the impact of climate change massive migration is an adaptation strategy. It gives the affected community a chance to rebuild their lives; a new livelihood, a new hope. But this does not give a very positive outcome in the region where the migrants settle. In total, if we look broadly migration leads to three main conditions which are not mutually exclusive and can occur simultaneously viz. Competition, Ethnic-conflict, and Distrust. Competition occurs when a group of people comes to a new area resulting in the pressure on the already stressed resource available in the region leading to the competition between the various groups of people. Ethnic-Conflict occurs when different ethnic communities reside together in a region due to migration. These communities since they are different in their food habits, religion, culture, and traditions over time develop enmity between them leading to conflict. What happens in the Lake Chad region is a good example of this effect whereby the non-state actors use these differences to recruit more combatants. Distrust happens when a scarce resource is shared between various communities leading to scepticism developing between the various communities over time.

• Exploitation by elite and resource management: One interesting point to note in the context under study is that the rich elites and powerful people in a climate change-affected region usually use their authority to gain absolute control of the masses by controlling the already scarce resources. This leads to the dissatisfied masses taking up arms and joining the non-state actors further worsening the situation. Another aspect is that the State in these conflict-prone areas usually abuses their power in the name of fighting the non-state actors causing human rights issues. Meanwhile, there are also cases whereby the State or the Elites use the context of resources to bring about dissatisfaction among the different Ethnic groups leading to massive humanitarian crises. Mention can be made of the incidents that happened during the 1990s where the Moi regime instigated ethnic violence to undermine the call for democracy. The government worked along Moi to exacerbate existing land grievances, cause group conflict, and safeguard the government's power. Sometimes the Elites can also use their power to induce a conflict and recruit more manpower in this context. For example, elite exploitation of grievances is demonstrated by Rezaigat camel nomads in Darfur who, before the droughts in the 70s and 80s, had mutually benefiting relationships with local farmers. The negative impacts of droughts led to local land disputes and provoked grievances among farmers and the Rezaigat. Grievances soon escalated to large-scale violence when the government capitalized on the Rezaigat's grievances towards local groups and recruited them to enact violence.