Back to square one- How Ayni airbase loss sets India back

“We had a bilateral arrangement with Tajikistan for the rehabilitation and development of Ayni aerodrome. This arrangement was in place for several years. After the conclusion of the agreement that we had with Tajikistan we have handed over the facility to the Tajik side. This happened in 2022.” ~ Mr. Randhir Jaiswal, Official Spokesperson. 

These words mark the end of the Indian presence in Central Asia through the Ayni airbase also known as Gissar Military Aerodrome (GMA) that is located about 10 km west of Dushanbe, Tajikistan’s capital, and roughly 20km from Afghanistan’s Wakhan Corridor, a narrow strip of land in the Badakhshan province. It also borders with Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) in the south while providing proximity to China’s Xinjiang province to the east; nailing the area as a strategic hotspot on the Eurasian map. 

Background-   

After 9/11 when the Twin-Towers collapsed and the debris ended up in the Whitehouse to be cleaned it was followed by America’s attrition and aggression towards Afghanistan. The moment when India under Vajpayee monopolised the opportunity of grabbing this nexus under its veil. After the USSR disintegrated, the Soviet-era base was left in the ruins of a civil war that razed Tajikistan. India took it upon itself to renovate and rebuild the aerodrome with an investment scaling up to nearly $100 million up until it wound up its operations in the recent times. It counts as the second overseas base that India has had after the Farkhor base which became inoperable in 2008.  

The beginning - 

In what is considered as a major power play, India and Tajikistan signed a bilateral agreement in 2002 binding a consensus that India could revitalize the facility. The upward trajectory of the growth of this project was rapid. In the period between 2002-2022, India put up an investment of millions of dollars which resulted in development of the infrastructure by the Border Road Organisation (BRO).  

The upgradations included an extended runway up to 3200 meters which assists in refuelling, repairs, hangars, air traffic control towers, suitable for heavy-lift transport aircraft and fighter jets. Medical assistance through hospitals and clinics was also incorporated. India had stationed around 200 personnel coming from the army and air force at the base. Reports also suggest that Mi-17 helicopters and occasionally Su-30 MKIs were deployed there to assist the Tajik Air Force. 

Both Farkhor and Ayni bases played a major role in supporting anti-Taliban forces when the Northern Alliance was fighting Taliban in Afghanistan, through its medical facilities, logistical support, aerial assistance along with intelligence exchanges. GMA also served as a prime route for providing humanitarian aid to Afghanistan in dire times. Most recently when the regime changed in 2021, it acted as an evacuation passage for Indian nationals. 

The end- 

This two decade long running partnership between the two countries came to an unfortunate end in 2022 when Tajikistan declined the renewal of the lease to India forcing India to vacate the facility, the process that winded up recently bringing the topic back in news for the analysts to ponder upon. While some speculate that the significance of the base was deprecated after Taliban took over the rule of the country in 2021, but the axiom being- Tajikistan succumbed to pressure from Russia and China the two key players in the region.

This has cost India its only foothold in the Central Asian region which projected its strength and diplomacy, pushing it in a rather precarious corner. It is important to understand that bases don’t only act as an increment in military advancement but that the mere physical presence in significant locations says a lot. Ayni was symbolic to India’s foreign strategy and policy. It represented both a logistical asset for humanitarian and military operations as well as a strategic statement of its intent to engage the Eurasian security architecture. A full stop to this chapter sets India back in the global race and makes us question its long-term framework.  

The aftermath-  

Tajikistan being a poor nation itself, relies heavily on Russian and Chinese assistance both financially as well as militarily. In the Russia-China-India trinity, while R-I get along on mutual fronts, I-C find it rather arduous to maintain a ‘harmonious’ relationship. With ties souring and straining after the face-off at LAC in 2020, maintaining peace has been challenging. India's presence in what can be called as a prime location in Eurasian area acted as a block for China’s strategy, consequently it got to capitulate Tajikistan into not extending the agreement any further. Ayni airbase acted as that tip of a pencil which India sharpened for nearly 20 decades, that now stands broken. 

With China’s aggressive territorial approach, spreading its control over all the region whether through CPEC, BRI, Kyaukpyu port in Myanmar, Hambantota port in Sri Lanka and other strategic economic and infrastructural investment in Nepal, Maldives etc., it is clear that China will thwart all eventualities that will hinder its uprising as an epicentre for global power play. The dominance exerted by this country is one to emulate and India should take notes.  

With prevailing powers such as the U.S., Russia, China all acquiring strategic overseas bases, expanding their military capabilities, exerting power and influence globally, India barely spinning its wheel is asinine. With no significant and sovereign military foothold outside the borders of the country is pessimistic for its power projection. Yes, India does have several defence partnerships and training deployments with Mauritius, Bhutan, Madagascar, Maldives, Sri Lanka and others, all of which is mainly focused around the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). But don't let this exuberance grow, the substantial question remains- Is this enough for the topsy turvy world order?  

What Next?-

As long as the heavyweights of world power keep permeating their spider web through internationally acquired strategic footholds, New Delhi’s prerogative must be to adopt expansionists expeditions beyond its own land mass. With major projects such as the Chabahar Port in Iran, Duqm Port in Oman, International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), India Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), India’s influence in the continent is on the road of success. America’s dominance has been subjected to diminish the sovereignty of middle power nations such as India and in the recent times measures have been put in place to budge this effect of Americanisation of world order. At the time when ‘G2’ is taking over the headlines, global groupings like- SCO, SAARC, BIMSTEC, BRICS gathering more momentum has been a pain in Washington’s  neck, who always wants to call the shots. 

With an increasing number of logistics and cooperation agreements that include India as a partner, Delhi’s kismet is on the way to improvement. From Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Agreement (RELOS), Logistics exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), Acquisition and Cross-Service Agreement (ACSA), to Mutual Logistics Support Agreement (MLSA) all offer operational flexibility to India with broadened reach and presence. It allows a more strengthened alliance and trust amongst the partner nations. But to ensure sovereignty, more pragmatic steps must  be added to the to-do list of the long term framework. 

Conclusion-

North to India is a hive of various closely connected nations and to the south there are isolated islands; no matter in what direction interests lie, what is sure is that the breeze flowing will always carry particles of political influence. One prime instance remains the outlook of Maldives’ political policies. This calculus leaves India’s with not loyalty, but with a tricky neighbourhood with overturning tendencies to engage with. 

The old world order has been tossed aside and the pieces of the new one are being laid. India seems to be having a tough time finding a position that disseminates greater influence and dominance. Rising from the ruins of colonialism, India now stands as the fourth largest economy with the biggest human capital to back the growth and development, its foreign policy, diplomacy and geopolitical strategies should do justice to the immense potential which the country holds. It is a sine qua non for India to accumulate more military incentives and leverages that will serve to the best of its interests in the times to come.