Arming the Rival: The Sino-Pak Security Nexus

Śatroḥ śatru mitraṁ bhavati[1], meaning; the Ari’s Ari (enemy’s enemy) is to be considered a Mitra (ally), forming the basis of strategic alignment in statecraft. This maxim dating back to Arthashastra has naively become the unspoken doctrine governing the contemporary geopolitical realignment across the Indo-Pacific theatre. As India strategically manoeuvres to combat terrorism and fundamentalism emanating from our north-western neighbour Pakistan, it is important to undertake a rigorous examination of the evolving regional subtleties.

There has been a seismic shift in South Asian security and defence architecture in recent decades. This can be substantiated by the end of erstwhile robust defense bilateralism between Washington and Islamabad and its gradual metamorphosis to another strategic tie — the one where Beijing eagerly fills the vacuum, thus providing Pakistan with arms and ammunition, cutting-edge defense technology, and critical intelligence infrastructure. Daniel Byman remarks, “Pakistan, once at the center of U.S foreign policy, is increasingly marginalised. This has taken shape of a limited, transactional relationship- the New Normal.[2]” The Afghanistan conflict was the foundational stone for US-Pakistan relationship since the 2000s as the American presence in Afghani soil necessitated dependence on Pakistan. Thus, following the withdrawal of US Army in August 2021 simultaneously truncated military-to-military engagements between the two nations. Some scholars also suggest an array of reasons for this debacle; global financial crisis of 2007-08 in US economy resulting into the subsequent diversification of Pakistan’s military imports from countries like China, France, Russia, Ukraine, etc, while others suggest that the unstable political regime in Pakistan is to be partly held accountable for US showing less interest in Pakistani affairs. Apart from the aforementioned factors, the rising prominence of China as an economic power towards 1990s and 2000s and Sino-Pak nexus has also been a major contributor towards Pakistan’s miliary and nuclear capabilities.[3]

Amidst constant separatist tendencies from Baluchistan Liberation Amry and pressure by Islamist terror camps in Pakistan mainland and PoJK, it is crucial to note that Pakistan is heavily dependent on its allies for realising its security needs.  Post the US withdrawal, Pakistan was rather compelled to forge “other” partnerships for advancing in its endeavours. For the first decade of the 2000, Pakistan was importing from countries like China, France, Russia, Italy, Ukraine, Turkey, etc., and subsequently, China proved to be the closest defense ally. As Gen Xiong Guangkai observed, “Pakistan is China’s Israel” — at present, China is the largest exporter of arms and ammunitions to Pakistan with voluminous investments through CPEC and intelligence transfer.[4] This calculated Chinese investment is two-fold: establishing a formidable presence in the Arabian Sea, thus undermining US strategic foothold in Indo-Pacific and advancing in its “String of Pearls” alignment while simultaneously containing India's rising prosperity and geopolitical influence.

Pak’s Defence Capacities as acquired by the Chinese in recent years

Pakistan Air force capacities

Pakistan signed a $278 million contract in 2008 with the People’s Republic of China for 4 ZDK-03 AWACS as per modalities of the Pakistani Air Force. ZDK- 03 or Karakoram Eagle is based on a Y-8F600 airframe taking inspiration from an erstwhile Russian 12-transport aircraft. This can be placed viz-a-viz the US C-130. Characteristics of this Eagle include an electronically charged radar capable of scanning the airspace 360 degrees in azimuth and is based in Karachi. This, further operated in integration with the infamous Pakastani-Chinese JF-17 Thunder multi-role fighter aircraft[5] enhances the overall defense philosophy of Pakistani airspace. This is claimed to be the most important asset of the PAF, however, shot down by Indian missile defense systems on May 9th, 2025. Experts observe that JF-17 was developed as the “Chinese copy” for the much-renowned Russian Su-30MKI. However, this cannot undermine its merit. With a payload capacity of approximately 3,500 kilograms, JF-17 can accelerate with a speed of 2000 km/h. This 4th Gen lightweight fighter aircraft could have given Pakistan an affordable yet effective combat alternative and interception capacity against Indian defense operation.[6]

Further on, the K-8 Karakoram single engine jet trainer co-developed by HAIC and PAC has been in operation since initial Sino-Pak military engagements.

The CH-4 is yet another, high altitude defense mechanism characterised by retractable electro-optical sensor turret boosting communications with satellite systems.[7] This unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) can shoot up-to a distance of 5000 meters from ground zero, making it a promising equipment. As per the reports from the night of 7th May 2025, Indian counter-strikes have claimed to have whacked the Pakistani-Chinese HQ-9 Air Defence Shield in Lahore.[8] Experts suggest that HQ-9 is the Chinese variant of Soviet S-300 missile system. This has a range of approximately 150 kilometres, and Pakistan imported this in response to Indian Air Defense superiority decorated with S-400.

Pakistan Navy capacities

With premeditated maritime autonomy securing a unique position for India and her allies in international arena coupled with the shift from Euro-Atlantic to Indo-Pacific narrative; over the past few decades, countries with a strategic coastal share in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean have come to recognizing the importance of maritime defense and naval expansion.[9]

New Delhi has been resilient in calibrating the Chinese aggression on both her coastal expanse. Thus, in the lieu of this, Pakistan’s Navy has acquired 8 Chinese Hangor Class 039-Yuan attack submarines[10] in exchange of $5 billion. Not only are these well-equipped diesel-electric submarines but also anti-ship and land-attack cruise, thereby, advancing Pakistan’s capability in the Indian Ocean Region. Likewise, Pakistan’s Navy has commissioned F-22P frigates, also known as Zulfikar Class Chinese 053 H3 frigates.[11] These have utility in anti-submarine warfare alongside anti-land or anti-surface warfare, thus, earning a respectable place in maritime strategy of Pakistan. The joint deployment of JF-17 fighter jets and Chinese 802A anti-ship missiles has elevated Pakistan’s naval aviation offensive capacities. Earlier in 2024 it was suspiciously reported that China is constructing intelligence mechanisms of specialized submarine pens from the Pakistani front of Arabian Sea to acquire strategic counter facility against New Delhi.[12]

Pakistan Army Capacities

With respect to Pakistan’s Army and its capacities, it is important to take a brief overview of Pakistan’s internal and external disintegration. With the US containing its arm supplies and the introduction of Chinese dubious investments; a pauperized Islamabad has been importing not less than 70-80% of its military arms and weaponry from China. SIPRI notes that the total arms import between China and Pakistan in the past quinquennium accounted for approximately $5 billion, i.e. more than 60% of Pakistan’s cumulative arms imports.[13]

The Hatf III short range ballistic missile or the Ghaznavi with solid fuel propulsion system provides Pakistan with speedy nuclear delivery system.[14] This has a range of 300 km, and with HQ-16 combination, creates multi-tiered surface and air defense network. Likewise, with respect to non-kinetic capabilities, China has armed Pakistan with CETC-developed integrated EW system and SATCOM jammers.[15] Additionally, Pakistani military makes use of Chinese BeiDou Navigation system for missile operation and guiding. With respect to ground warfare modernization, Pakistan has acquired a total of 176 units of Chinese CT-4 Main Battle Tank, which experts claim is the most acclaimed Chinese export variant armour. This specifically acts as a countering force to Indian T-90MS and Arjun MBT platform. Likewise, Chinese SH-15 155 mm wheeled howitzer with semi-automated systems facilitate rocket assisted projectiles.[16]

All said and done, we should also take a note of India’s countermeasures to Sino-Pakistan military engagements. For a long time now, New Delhi has consistently forged multilateral and bilateral defense partnerships with major economies across the globe alongside indigenous production and export of defense equipments.

With respect to Indian aerial warfare establishments, DRDO-Embraer AEW&CS, Phalcon AWACS, MK-II, are world class superior detection and electronic intelligence mechanisms. The JF-17 and its variants with Pakistan have a superior Indian fleet of 30- MKI multirole fighter jets, equipped with BrahMos, Rafale, Tejas MK-I, etc. S-400 defense system and interception technology has been acclaimed to be world’s most advanced surface and aerial defensive establishment.

Implications on India

Time and again, geopolitical circles and the intelligentsia have underscored the challenges of Sino-Pak nexus and its implications over world peace and stability. Amidst Pakistan sharing a tainted history with India and the growing Chinese aggression from political and economic fronts, New Delhi duly recognizes the challenges in her way while navigating the intense power struggle in the subcontinent. For Pakistan, China is an economic-friendly-common-enemy ally and for China, the former becomes a strategic battleground to prove its supremacy and establish its foothold in proximity to Indian Ocean and PoJK. With the preface of CPEC and other developmental projects, Chinese troops have been strategically placed in the valleys of Kashmir, thus making it an alarming national security concern for India. This further complicates the India-Pakistan conundrum over the Kashmir question by including third party players to decide the future course.

The ongoing Operation Sindoor, that is, India’s precision counter-terrorism missile strike launched in midnight May 7th, 2025, in response to the Pahalgam atrocities has unconsciously exposed critical vulnerabilities in Pakistan's military preparedness and operational doctrine. Yet, more significantly, it offers an unprecedented prism to examine the ever-evolving regional dynamics reconfiguring Asia’s security infrastructure. The emerging Sino-Pakistan defense partnership is positioned in direct opposition to the strengthening Indo-American strategic alignment. This not merely represents the two bilateral arrangements, but rather a protracted power contest between China and the US. This will ultimately play a significant role in redefining Indo Pacific landscape and global security systems.

References

1. Kautilya. “Arthashastra (c. 4th century BCE). Translation by R. Shamasastry”. Government Press. 1915.

2. Haqqani, Husain. “Magnificent Delusions: Pakistan, the United States, and an Epic History of Misunderstanding.” United States: Public Affairs, 2013.

3. Small, A. “The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia’s New geopolitics.”  Oxford University Press.  May 21 2015.  https://academic.oup.com/book/25748 

4. Afzal, Madiha. “The New, and Low, Normal in U.S.-Pakistan Relations.” Default, January 19, 2025. https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-new--and-low--normal-in-u.s.-pakistan-relations 

5. Vanaik, Granth. “Shifting Trends In Pakistan’s Military Cooperation:  From Usa to China.” ResearchGate, May 2019. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/347836854_Pakistan’s_Military_Cooperation_From_USA_to_China 

6. Marvin G. Weinbaum and Syed Mohammad Ali, “Pakistan’s Deepening Strategic Reliance on China,” Middle East Institute, April 25, 2025, https://mei.edu/publications/pakistans-deepening-strategic-reliance-china 

7. Chhatwal, Ravinder S. “Pakistan’s Chinese AWACS ZDK-03 Karakoram Eagle.” Academia.edu. November 30, 2024. https://www.academia.edu/28255250/PAKISTANS_CHINESE_AWACS_ZDK_03_KARAKORAM_EAGLE 

8. “What Is the JF-17-A Pakistani-Chinese Fighter Jet Infamously Used by Pakistan to Attack India?” The Week News. The Week, May 9, 2025. https://www.theweek.in/news/defence/2025/05/09/what-is-the-jf-17-a-pakistani-chinese-fighter-jet-infamously-used-by-pakistan-to-attack-india.html 

9. Narayan, Priyanjali,” India Leaves Lahore Defenceless”. IndiaToday. May 8, 2025. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/india-leaves-lahore-defenceless-hits-china-made-hq-9-missile-shield-hq-9p-air-defence-system-pakistan-2721592-2025-05-08

10. Khan, Bilal. “JF-17 Block-2 and Block-3 Details Confirmed.” Quwa, July 5, 2016. https://quwa.org/weekly-report/jf-17-block-2-and-block-3-details-confirmed/ 

11. Bhan, Aditya. “The Role of China-Made Frigates in the Pakistan Navy’s Power Projection Matrix.” ORF. June 10, 2024. https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-role-of-china-made-frigates-in-the-pakistan-navy-s-power-projection-matrix 

12. Gady, Franz-Stefan. “Pakistan’s JF-17 Fighter Jet to Be Upgraded with Chinese Radar.” The Diplomat, April 2, 2018. https://thediplomat.com/2018/04/pakistans-jf-17-fighter-jet-to-be-upgraded-with-chinese-radar/ 

13. “Chinese Builder Launches Pakistan Navy’s Second Hangor-Class Submarine.” Baird Maritime, April 18, 2024. https://www.bairdmaritime.com/security/naval/naval-submersibles/chinese-builder-launches-pakistan-navys-second-hangor-class-submarine.

14. “Zulfiquar-Class (F-22P) Frigate.” Quwa, October 6, 2023. https://quwa.org/daily-news/pakistan-navy-ships-zulfiquar-class-f-22p-frigate/.

    
    
    
    

15. Suciu, Peter. “Could Pakistan SMASH the Indian Navy?” The National Interest. November 8, 2024.https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/could-pakistan-smash-indian-navy-213640 

16. “Pakistan to Strengthen Naval Defence with Its First Frigate-Sized Warship.” The Express Tribune, January 14, 2025. https://tribune.com.pk/story/2512082/pakistan-to-strengthen-naval-defence-with-its-first-frigate-sized-warship.

    
    

[1] R. Shamasastry . “Kautilya’s Arthashastra,” Internet Archive, January 1, 1970,                                https://archive.org/details/kautilyas-arthashastra 

[2] Afzal, Madiha. “The New, and Low, Normal in U.S.-Pakistan Relations.” Default, January 19, 2025. https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-new--and-low--normal-in-u.s.-pakistan-relations

[3] Small, A. “The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia’s New geopolitics.”  Oxford University Press.  May 21 2015.  https://academic.oup.com/book/25748

[4] Vanaik, Granth. “Shifting Trends in Pakistan’s Military Cooperation:  From USA to China.” ResearchGate, May 2019.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/347836854_Pakistan’s_Military_Cooperation_From_USA_to_China 

[5] “What Is the JF-17-A Pakistani-Chinese Fighter Jet Infamously Used by Pakistan to Attack India?” The Week, May 9, 2025. https://www.theweek.in/news/defence/2025/05/09/what-is-the-jf-17-a-pakistani-chinese-fighter-jet-infamously-used-by-pakistan-to-attack-india.html 

[6] “What Is the JF-17-A Fighter Jet Infamously Used by Pakistan to Attack India?” The Week, May 9, 2025.

[7] Chhatwal, Ravinder S. “Pakistan’s Chinese AWACS ZDK-03 Karakoram Eagle.” Academia.edu. November 30, 2024.https://www.academia.edu/28255250/PAKISTANS_CHINESE_AWACS_ZDK_03_KARAKORAM_EAGLE 

[8] Narayan, Priyanjali,” India Leaves Lahore Defenceless”. IndiaToday. May 8, 2025. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/india-leaves-lahore-defenceless-hits-china-made-hq-9-missile-shield-hq-9p-air-defence-system-pakistan-2721592-2025-05-08 

[9] Bhan, Aditya. “The Role of China-Made Frigates in the Pakistan Navy’s Power Projection Matrix.” ORF. June 10, 2024. https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-role-of-china-made-frigates-in-the-pakistan-navy-s-power-projection-matrix 

[10] “Chinese Builder Launches Pakistan Navy’s Second Hangor-Class Submarine.” Baird Maritime, April 18, 2024. https://www.bairdmaritime.com/security/naval/naval-submersibles/chinese-builder-launches-pakistan-navys-second-hangor-class-submarine.

[11] “Zulfiquar-Class (F-22P) Frigate.” Quwa, October 6, 2023. https://quwa.org/daily-news/pakistan-navy-ships-zulfiquar-class-f-22p-frigate/.

[12] Suciu, Peter. “Could Pakistan SMASH the Indian Navy?” The National Interest. November 8, 2024.https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/could-pakistan-smash-indian-navy-213640 

[13] Marvin G. Weinbaum and Syed Mohammad Ali, “Pakistan’s Deepening Strategic Reliance on China,” Middle East Institute, April 25, 2025, https://mei.edu/publications/pakistans-deepening-strategic-reliance-china 

[14] Gady, Franz-Stefan. “Pakistan’s JF-17 Fighter Jet to Be Upgraded with Chinese Radar.” The Diplomat, April 2, 2018. https://thediplomat.com/2018/04/pakistans-jf-17-fighter-jet-to-be-upgraded-with-chinese-radar/ 

[15] Samran Ali, “Non-Kinetic Anti-Satellite Options for Pakistan,” Centre for Strategic and Contemporary Research, August 21, 2024, https://cscr.pk/explore/themes/defense-security/non-kinetic-anti-satellite-options-for-pakistan/ 

[16] Bommakanti, Kartik. “China’s Military Modernisation: Recent Trends - 2024.” ORF. October 1, 2024. https://www.orfonline.org/research/contemporary-trends-in-china-s-military-modernisation