Aftermath of Pager Blasts in Lebanon

The pager blast was not merely a malfunction but a deliberate and calculated strike that marked the beginning of a carefully planned attack on Hezbollah. This Tuesday incident triggered a much larger series of events. Let’s take a deeper dive into the events that followed this incident:

Wednesday, September 18th: The Walkie-Talkie Explosion

If the pager blast was meant to send a message, the second attack—a walkie-talkie explosion—reinforced that message with devastating clarity. The walkie-talkie, rigged with explosives, detonated during a high-level Hezbollah meeting, killing several senior operatives. This device, commonly used by Hezbollah commanders for secure communications, had been sabotaged in a chillingly effective display of technological warfare.

The walkie-talkie explosion not only underscored Israel’s ability to penetrate Hezbollah’s internal communications but also spread panic among the group’s leadership. It is now clear that even trusted tools of communication could be turned into deadly weapons, further exposing Hezbollah’s vulnerability.

Thursday, September 19th: Israel’s Admission of Responsibility and coordination with the U.S.

In a rare move, Israeli officials publicly took responsibility for the attacks, acknowledging that they were part of an ongoing campaign to weaken Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. According to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, the operation was necessary to preempt Hezbollah’s planned activities that posed a direct threat to Israeli security. Gallant noted that Hezbollah had been amassing a significant amount of weapons along the Israeli border and had been planning cross-border operations that could destabilise the region.

What has caused even more alarm is Israel’s admission that it had informed the United States of its intentions prior to the attack. According to Israeli sources, discussions were held with U.S. officials, who were briefed on the planned strikes and their objectives. While the U.S. did not actively participate in the operation, Israeli officials sought to ensure that Washington was aware of the scope and reasoning behind the preemptive strike. This revelation has sparked intense debate within diplomatic circles, as the U.S.’s tacit approval raises questions about its role in the broader Middle Eastern conflict.

Friday, September 20th: Hassan Nasrallah’s Vow of Retaliation

In the aftermath of these attacks, Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, broke his silence, addressing his followers and the international community in a televised speech. For the first time since the deadly device sabotage, Nasrallah vowed that Israel would face retribution. His speech, filled with both rage and defiance, left no doubt that Hezbollah viewed these attacks as an unprecedented escalation.

Nasrallah referred to the two rounds of attacks as "unprecedented" and directly blamed Israel for the sabotage of Hezbollah’s communication devices. He warned that Hezbollah’s retaliation would come “at a time and place of our choosing,” signalling that the group would not act hastily but would prepare a measured and devastating response.

Friday, September 20th: Israel’s Military Response

In the hours following Nasrallah’s speech, Israel launched a series of airstrikes, striking hundreds of targets across southern Lebanon. Israeli officials confirmed that these strikes were part of a larger military operation designed to neutralise Hezbollah’s infrastructure. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated that the airstrikes were a direct response to the threats from Hezbollah and aimed to prevent any immediate retaliation. These airstrikes were not limited to Hezbollah’s military positions but also targeted key logistical hubs, communication facilities, and weapons caches. 

Deaths of Ibrahim Aqil and Ahmed Wehbe

Israeli sources have indicated that the operation is far from over. They also announced that the airstrike killed Ibrahim Aqil, commander of Hezbollah's elite Radwan Force, and Ahmed Wehbe, another prominent Hezbollah commander. The attack targeted a meeting of senior commanders, killing at least 37 people, including 10 high-ranking officials. 

Now, the question arises who is Ibrahim Aqil and why is Israel so public about it?

Ibrahim Aqil was a notable figure within Hezbollah, recognised for his leadership of the Radwan forces- an elite military unit within Hezbollah, who are known for their specialised training in both guerrilla warfare and conventional military operations. Named after a prominent martyr, this unit has played a crucial role in Hezbollah's military capabilities. Over his decades-long career, Aqil became a significant player in the intricate landscape of Lebanese politics and military strategy.

Aqil was also wanted by the United States for his involvement in the 1983 bombings of the US Embassy and Marine barracks in Beirut that resulted in the deaths of hundreds of Americans. He was celebrated by Hezbollah as one of its most prominent leaders. The United States had placed a substantial $7 million bounty on Aqil for his role in the 1983 bombings. Additionally, Aqil was implicated in the kidnapping of American and European hostages during the 1980s.

Hezbollah has confirmed his demise, referring to him as a “great jihadist leader.” Aqil's death marks a serious blow to Hezbollah's leadership, especially as it comes just weeks after the death of Fuad Shukr, another senior Hezbollah commander, in a similar Israeli airstrike. Both men were top figures within Hezbollah's military operations and played key roles in planning attacks against Israel.

Impact on Middle East: 

The pager blast, walkie-talkie explosion, and now missile strikes have aggravated an already volatile situation in the Middle East. Lebanon, a country grappling with economic collapse, political paralysis, and widespread social unrest, is ill-equipped to handle a large-scale military conflict. The Lebanese government has condemned Israel’s airstrikes but is powerless to intervene, as Hezbollah operates largely outside the state’s control.

The attacks have also heightened tensions with Syria and Iran, both key backers of Hezbollah. Syria, still recovering from its own civil war, views any attack on Hezbollah as a direct threat to its strategic alliance with the group. Iran, Hezbollah’s primary financial and military supporter, has condemned Israel’s actions and hinted that it could respond by increasing its support for Hezbollah, raising the stakes for a potential proxy war between Israel and Iran.

Regional players like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt are also watching closely, concerned that the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah could spill over into neighbouring countries, destabilising the broader Middle East. International actors, including the United States and Russia, are similarly wary, as they balance their own geopolitical interests in the region. The U.S., which was informed by Israel beforehand about the planned strikes, has called for restraint, but its tacit support of Israel complicates its position as a potential mediator.

A Gloomy Future:

The recent series of violent incidents in southern Lebanon, which began with a pager blast, followed by the explosion of a walkie-talkie device, and culminating in Israeli missile strikes, has escalated tensions in the Middle East to alarming levels. These attacks have not only resulted in significant casualties but have also exacerbated the already fragile geopolitical landscape in the region. With Israel admitting responsibility for the sabotage and subsequent military operations, Hezbollah vowing retaliation, and regional players nervously watching the unfolding situation, the prospect of a broader conflict is looming.