Navigating the Potential Visit of Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Tarique Rahman to New Delhi

The political environment in Dhaka has seen a drastic change. Post-uprising, Tarique Rahman, who is the chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and son of former President of Bangladesh Ziaur Rahman and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia , was elected as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh following the overwhelming electoral victory of his party. Contrary to the norm of making the first foreign destination New Delhi, Rahman first visited Malaysia and China. Talks about the possible bilateral visit to India and even an invitation to the forthcoming BRICS summit have placed India-Bangladesh relations at a very critical stage.

It is for the same reason that the significance of this visit becomes evident. This visit cannot be termed as just another diplomatic courtesy visit; on the contrary, it could be the first ever attempt made by the BNP led government to forge ties with India.

Why is he coming?

PM Rahman’s prospective visit is prompted by both economic needs and strategic considerations.

Firstly, the aim would be to rebuild bilateral relations. Rahman finds himself in a situation where India has built particularly close ties with the former Awami League government. For Dhaka, keeping distance from India might be politically expedient in the short term; however, geography does not allow for constant confrontation in the long term. India is Dhaka’s biggest and most important neighbour, and the cooperation is necessary in trade, connectivity, energy, border control, and regional security.

Dhaka depends on India for important supply chains, including 2.4 GW of electricity imports per day, food supplies, and logistics via the Bangladesh-India Friendship Pipeline.

Secondly, a meeting between the PM of both nationa could create a new political channel. India’s High Commissioner in Dhaka, Dinesh Trivedi, has stated that dialogue between the two Prime Ministers could settle existing disputes.

Thirdly, the visit could help Sheikh Hasina’s extradition. This matter appears to be the most politically sensitive one. Bangladesh has been insisting on the need for India to extradite Hasina who stayed in India following the events of 2024 uprising in Bangladesh. The country has tied its willingness to provide a good environment for Rahman’s visit to India with progress in the matter.

Finally, for Rahman, the visit would be quite politically costly if he does not achieve some success in the issue of Hasina. The government needs to show that good relations with India do not imply submission to the wishes of India at the expense of Bangladesh’s sovereignty.

Fourthly, there is a regional aspect of the visit. India has additionally invited Rahman to participate in the BRICS outreach in New Delhi as the chair of BIMSTEC.

India’s Stand 

It seems that India's stance is one of engaging without making hasty concessions.

New Delhi has repeatedly signalled its willingness to engage with Rahman. Following his assumption of office, India extended an invitation for a bilateral visit, while the Indian High Commissioner emphasised the importance of sustained and direct political dialogue. More recently, the envoy conveyed Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s greetings to Rahman and reiterated India’s desire to engage with Bangladesh in a “positive, constructive and forward-looking” manner.

The fact is significant since India does not seem to be interested in letting the Hasina issue completely bring bilateral relations to a standstill. Yet New Delhi has not made a public commitment to handing over Hasina to Bangladesh.

The reason for India's careful attitude lies in the legal nature of extradition. Although there is an extradition treaty between India and Bangladesh going back to 2013, extradition is not an automatic political arrangement. The Ministry of External Affairs in India considers itself to be the main body concerned with extradition and says that requests are assessed in accordance with the applicable treaty and Indian law.

The diplomatic dilemma 

The biggest issue here is that while both governments would like a new beginning, both do not wish to look like they are compromising first.

Dhaka wants to see that India recognises the new realities that Bangladesh faces after 2024. Hence, the extradition of Hasina will not only be a legal issue but will also be seen as an issue of political justice.

On the other hand, New Delhi has good reasons to be very careful. Not only does it need to look into the legality of the extradition case but also it needs to look at the issues involved in it.

Therefore, the upcoming visit can be an occasion where the issues can be sorted out from each other.

How should India move forward?

New Delhi has increasingly sought to recalibrate its engagement with Dhaka in response to the changing political realities in Bangladesh, while remaining mindful of the broader strategic interests shared by both countries. Rather than allowing political differences to define the relationship, India’s approach appears to be centred on maintaining diplomatic continuity and preserving the space for constructive engagement with the new political dispensation

India must take the opportunity provided by the meeting between Modi and Rahman and start negotiations on a wider range of issues, including trade, connectivity, borders, energy, water-sharing and security. The water issue, the Teesta, for example, and other border problems will not be resolved through symbolic diplomacy.

Conclusion

In effect, the attempt by Prime Minister Tarique Rahman to engage with New Delhi is the natural progression towards realpolitik from any ideology-driven rhetoric.

Geography and shared interests make sustained engagement between the two countries unavoidable. A potential meeting between Prime Ministers Modi and Rahman, if it takes place, could provide an important political opening to reset bilateral ties and build greater confidence between the two sides. 

What is important is that they maintain dialogue, manage their differences and avoid allowing disagreements to affect the larger relationship. The focus should now be on building a stable and mutually beneficial partnership based on shared interests.