Hyper Sonic Missiles: Why South Asia is Entering a New Arms Race

Hypersonic missiles are often described as the next big revolution in warfare. These weapons travel at more than five times the speed of sound and, unlike traditional missiles, they can change direction while flying. This combination of extreme speed and manoeuvrability makes them very hard to track and even harder to intercept. Until a few years ago, this technology was limited to major powers like the United States, Russia, and China. Today, however, South Asia is slowly entering this dangerous race, and the consequences for regional security could be very serious. Militaries across the world are now preparing to address the old adage “Nowhere to run, Nowhere to hide” for the fear is too great to ignore.

To understand why hypersonic weapons are such big concerns, we must first look at how traditional missiles work. A normal ballistic missile follows a predictable arc after the launch. Once it rises into the sky, radars can track its path and missile defense systems get some time to react. Hypersonic glide vehicles do not behave like this. After being launched, they separate from the booster and glide through the atmosphere at very high speeds while constantly changing direction. This makes it extremely difficult for radar systems to calculate where they will land. In simple terms, the enemy gets much less warning, and the chances of stopping such a weapon are much lower.

China was the first country to openly show this capability when it displayed its DF-17 missile with a hypersonic glide vehicle during the National Day parade in Beijing in October 2019 Military analysts across the world took notice immediately. The DF-17 was designed to defeat missile defence systems and could potentially target high-value military assets such as airbases or aircraft carriers. Since then, China testing a nuclear-capable hypersonic glide vehicle that circled the globe before landing near its target caused widespread concern in strategic circles in the United States and Asia. Even though China downplayed the test as a space experiment, the message was clear: Beijing wanted to show that it had crossed a critical technological threshold. 

India entered the hypersonic field through a different route. The first real public step came with the Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator Vehicle, or HSTDV, which was successfully tested by the Defence Research and Development Organisation in September 2020. The test proved that India could develop a scramjet engine that allows sustained hypersonic flight within the atmosphere. In 2023, India conducted another successful long-duration test of the system, which was described by officials as a major milestone for future hypersonic cruise missiles. These tests were not direct weapon deployments but rather, an indication of tthe direction that the Republic is now marching towards.

Alongside this, India and Russia have been working on the idea of the future Brahmos-II missile, which is expected to travel at hypersonic speeds. While the original BrahMos already flies at nearly three times the speed of sound, the next version is meant to cross Mach 7. However, this project is still under development and has not yet entered active service.

Russia, meanwhile, has already operationalised its Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, which was declared operational in 2019. Russia has also used the Kinzhal air launched missile during the currently ongoing  Ukraine war, calling it a hypersonic weapon. Although Western analysts debate just how advanced these systems truly are, their use in an active conflict has shown that hypersonic weapons are no longer just experimental ideas.

The United States, for its part, has also been racing to catch up. It has conducted several tests under programmes such as the Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon and the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon. Some of these tests failed between 2021 and 2022, underlining how difficult this technology is to master. Still, by 2023-24, the US reported important progress and planned to deploy hypersonic weapons in limited numbers.

In this global setting, South Asia becomes deeply vulnerable because it is a region where conflict thresholds are already low, trust is limited and crisis communication mechanisms are weak. India and Pakistan are nuclear-armed neighbours with a long history of wars, standoffs and near-misses. The introduction of hypersonic weapons into such an environment adds a dangerous new layer of instability.

Pakistan does not yet possess proven hypersonic weapons, but it has shown interest in advanced missile technology. Its Ababeel missile test in 2017, which demonstrated Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles. It was seen as an effort to counter India’s missile defence plans. While Ababeel is not hypersonic in the same sense as a glide vehicle, it indicates a clear desire to stay technologically relevant. 

The core danger of hypersonic missiles in South Asia lies in how they compress decision-making time. In any crisis, leaders depend on early warning systems to assess whether an attack is real, where it is coming from, and how serious it is. When missiles can reach targets within minutes and move unpredictably, the time available to confirm information shrinks drastically. This increases the risk of misjudgement. A radar blip, a false alarm, or misinterpreted intelligence could trigger a deadly chain of events before diplomats or military commanders even get a chance to intervene.

There is also the problem of ambiguity, as they can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads. If one is launched, the country under attack may not know whether the strike is nuclear or non nuclear. In such uncertainty, the natural instinct may be to assume the worst. This ‘use it or lose it’ pressure could push leaders toward extremely dangerous decisions. 

Supporters of hypersonic programmes argue that these weapons strengthen deterrence by making sure that no enemy feels safe. They claim that speed and precision can prevent prolonged wars by forcing the other side to back down quickly. Though new military technologies often make conflicts more complex rather than simpler.

Another important side of the hypersonic race is the impact on missile defence. India has been developing a two-layer ballistic missile defence system for several years now. Traditional interceptor missiles hit targets that follow predictable paths. A hypersonic glide vehicle however? It defies all predictability while enroute to target and thus becomes near impossible targets to take down. This means that huge investments made in defence shields may lose much of their value in the coming decades. The balance between offence and defence could tilt sharply in favour of offence. 

China’s growing naval power also adds to the problem. Hypersonic antiship missiles could pose a serious threat to aircraft carriers and large warships operating in the Indian Ocean. For India. Which relies heavily on naval strength to protect sea lanes and project power, this is a worrying development. A future conflict in the Indo-pacific region would likely involve hypersonic systems on both land and sea.

At its core, the hypersonic race in South Asia is not just about power or prestige. It is about how close the region may be moving towards a future where wars begin and escalate before diplomacy even has a chance to work. The technology is still evolving. Countries are still learning from failures, improving designs and testing limits. This is precisely the phase when accidents and misjudgements are most likely. 

Without serious confidence-building measures, transparent communication between rivals and eventually some form of arms control dialogue, hypersonic weapons could become triggers for the next major crises. Speed may bring military advantage, but it also shortens the distance between peace and catastrophe. In a region already burdened by history, rivalry and nuclear fear, the margins of error are razor thin. Afterall, why wouldn't they be? This region is home to billions; billions who in the event of a full scale war shall have nowhere left to run, nowhere left to hide.