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Democracy, Disorder, and Dilemma: The Bangladesh Conundrum

The present day dilemma in Bangladesh is one of the most complex geopolitical matters India has to face in her eastern neighbourhood. The mass protest has turned into a larger crisis of authority, law and order, and political legitimacy, and has now started to have direct consequences for India in its diplomatic as well as domestic space. The current deterioration of relations between India and Bangladesh follows protests outside missions of both countries, which has become security concerns for both, amid already tense ties in the wake of three inter -related events: the exile of Bangladesh’s former prime minister, Sheikh Hasina in India, a spate of communal violence and killings, and a looming national election whose credibility is uncertain.


Who was Hadi? 


The killing of Sharif Osman Hadi, a 32-year old student and youth leader who rose to prominence from the July 2024 uprising, triggered this new round of violence. Hadi was a notable figure in the Inquilab Moncho Movement, known for overthrowing the Hasina government and making anti India comments. Hadi, being a key figure in last year’s pro democracy uprising, had announced plans to contest upcoming elections as an independent candidate. Hadi’s death sparked fresh violence in Bangladesh, with protestors on the streets, burning down and vandalising offices of news channels labelled as “Delhi’s Lapdog”, and targeting cultural institutions seen as India aligned. Additionally, Police also stopped a group of protestors marching towards the Indian High Commission in Dhaka’s Gulshan area, demanding the return of deposed prime minister Sheikh Hasina and others who fled during and after the July uprising last year. 


And now, Hadi’s brother, Omar, publicly accused that factions within the interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus had planned Hadi’s assassination to derail the election cycle and weaken emerging political options. Omar also warned that if those responsible of Hadi’s assasination, are not prosecuted, the consequences will be same as what happened with former prime minister Sheikh Hasina. This allegation has heightened domestic political divisions, eroding public confidence in state institutions and raising questions about the integrity of the electoral process.

Mob replaces the Law


In parallel with political unrest, a 25-27 year old, Hindu worker named Dipu Chandra Das was lynched by a mob which tied his body to a tree and set it on fire. The incident took place on the night of December 18, along the Dhaka-Mymensingh highway in the Jamirdia Dubaliapara area, and was initially reported to have been triggered by alleged insult to religion by Das, which, Police and accounts by family later suggested that a workplace dispute led to Das's lynching,an incident that has shocked civil society and minority rights advocates.


Days later, another man, Amrit Mondal, was lynched in Rajbari district on accusation of extortion. Another reporting has showed a pattern of anti Hindu violence throughout 2025, including forced eviction and land grabbing of Hindu families, sexual violence and harassment of Hindu women, and attacks on community property. And, at least seven Hindu family homes were burned down in recent days, forcing families to leave.


The interim government of Bangladesh, has been facing major backlash by minority groups for failing to protect vulnerable communities. The killings have also sparked protests in India, especially outside the Bangladesh High Commission in New Delhi, where protestors demanded protection for minorities. Witnessing this horrific incident, the Indian visa application centre in Bangladesh’s Chittagong had shut down amid security concerns. 


Political Actors: Anti India Narratives


In light of this tension, the National Citizen Party (NCP), a political grouping that emerged from student movements, has become influential. Amid all the unrest, NCP leader Hasnat Abdullah made a controversial statement saying that Bangladesh can offer shelter to separatist forces from India and cut the seven northeastern states off from India, a remark that has alarmed New Delhi.


For India, the Bangladesh crisis is a massive geopolitical headache. The two countries share a 4,000 kilometer border and have deep economic, cultural, and historical ties, thus, instability in Bangladesh threatens, border security and spillover of unrest, illegal migration and trafficking., radicalization and communal tensions near Indian states like Assam and West Bengal.


In response, Indian authorities have taken measures such as temporarily suspending visa services at consular offices in Bangladesh to protect personnel and manage security risks, and are also closely monitoring developments at the state level in border regions, such as Assam, where officials have publicly stated that they are watching the situation across the border by temporarily deploying the military along the border of Bangladesh, for any security implications.


The Return of Tarique Rahman: A Game Changer


Against this backdrop of unrest, Tarique Rahman, the acting chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and long-time opposition stalwart, returned to Dhaka on 25 December 2025 after nearly 17 years in exile in London, opening a new chapter in Bangladeshi politics. His return was met with excitement by his supporters, as it was seen as a boost for the party ahead of the 2026 elections.


Rahman is the son of former prime minister Khaleda Zia and the late President Ziaur Rahman, two of the most influential figures in the modern history of Bangladesh, and has been the de facto leader of the BNP from abroad. He had been in exile since he was convicted for corruption and conspiracy charges, many of which his supporters say were politically motivated, and many of which have since been overturned since Hasina fell. In his first major speech after arriving in Dhaka, Rahman talked about invoking civil rights and described a vision of national unity in which people of all religions would come together in peace and cooperation. 


The Election that may decide Little or Everything


Bangladesh is scheduled to hold national elections in February 2026, a deciding event that will determine the future of Bangladesh and Indian interest for years to come. While the Awami League remains banned in many electoral contexts, chief advisor Muhammad Yunus has promised to ensure peaceful elections. But if violence continues or elections are perceived as unrepresentative, Bangladesh might experience renewed cycles of disturbance, greater polarization, and further decay in regional ties. Thus, a disputed outcome would deepen chaos rather than resolving it. 


What should India do? 


The Government of India is facing pressure from all directions, the MEA official outlets have demanded protection for the minorities in the region, firmly stands against instability, and concerns over regional security, reflecting how rapidly neighbourhood crises become domestic ones. This balancing act is going to become increasingly difficult if events in Bangladesh continue to deteriorate. 


Instability breeds opportunity, and Bangladesh is no exception. External actors are observing closely for an opportunity to increase their influence in South Asia. And thus, a distracted or reactive India would risk losing strategic ground in her own neighbourhood. A stable Bangladesh is critical for Connectivity Projects, Energy Cooperation, and Regional Trade Corridors and the longer the disruption, the more it will weaken India’s broader “Neighbourhood First” policy and complicate its eastern strategic architecture.


Thus, India’s response must be guided by pragmatic realism fortifying popular interests. New Delhi should keep diplomatic channels open at all costs, and resist domestic pressure for megaphone diplomacy. It should publicly support democratic processes without validating specific political actors. Humanitarian and people to people ties like, visas, medical travel, education should be separated from political shocks wherever possible. New Delhi must continue to stay prepared for uncertainty and should strengthen border management, plan for migration contingencies, and diversify regional partnerships to avoid over dependence on any single political outcome in Dhaka.


India’s goal should be neither dominance nor detachment, but durable engagement. How New Delhi navigates the exile of Sheikh Hasina, its response to communal violence, and how it positions itself ahead of Bangladesh’s elections will shape not just bilateral ties, but the credibility of India’s leadership in South Asia. In this moment of flux, restraint may prove to be India’s most strategic asset.


References:


Associated Press. (2025, December 23). Protest erupts in India’s capital over lynching of Hindu man in Bangladesh. CityNews Halifax.https://halifax.citynews.ca/2025/12/23/protest-erupts-in-indias-capital-city-over-lynching-of-hindu-man-in-bangladesh/


Hindustan Times. (2025, December 23). Hasina’s exile, Hadi’s killing, Hindu lynching: Triggers of India-Bangladesh tensions explained.https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/hasinas-exile-hadis-killing-hindus-lynching-triggers-of-india-bangladesh-tensions-explained-101766483166873.html



Le Monde. (2025, December 21). Bangladesh: Assassination of student protest leader sparks violence and heightens tensions with India.https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/12/21/bangladesh-assassination-of-student-protest-leader-sparks-violence-and-heightens-tensions-with-india_6748719_4.html



Reuters. (2025, December 23). Hundreds protest in New Delhi over killing of Hindu man in Bangladesh.https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/hundreds-protest-new-delhi-over-killing-hindu-man-bangladesh-2025-12-23/



Times of India. (2025, December 23). As tension rises, Bangladesh shuts visa operations in Delhi. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/as-tension-rises-bangladesh-shuts-visa-operations-in-delhi/articleshow/126128723.cms


Times of India. (2025, December 23). India-Bangladesh ties sour: Dhaka suspends visa services — 10 key points.https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-bangladesh-ties-sour-us-dials-yunus-dhaka-suspends-visa-services-10-key-points/articleshow/126132619.cms


 
 
 

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