Climate Migration And The Geopolitical Trajectories Of Tuvalu & Kiribati Islands
- Swetang Choubey
- Jul 7
- 6 min read
Background:
A report published by the Division for Climate in the South-West Pacific under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 2023 illustrated the sea-level rise in the region. It claimed that in this part of the globe, the sea surface temperature has risen 3 times higher than in other areas of the world since 1980. Also, marine heatwaves have almost doubled in frequency and are more intense, lasting longer.1
“A worldwide catastrophe is putting this Pacific paradise in peril,” said Mr Guterres during his visit to Samoa in August 2024. “Global average sea levels are rising at an unprecedented rate. The ocean is overflowing. The reason is clear: greenhouse gases – overwhelmingly generated by burning fossil fuels – are cooking our planet. And the sea is taking the heat – literally,” he added.
Tuvaluans are living under the threat of sinking into the ocean earlier than several other smaller islands. It is difficult to project very precisely; nevertheless, it is estimated that sea levels would rise globally up to 0.79m by the end of the 21st century.2
Kiribati is a primary example of the global and domestic crisis that will be wiped off the world map as a result of rising sea levels and land erosion, because most of this tropical country is only approximately 2 meters above sea level.3
Socio-economic impacts:
The countries of Tuvalu and Kiribati are home to more than 95% of the native population. And, with migration increasing due to climate vulnerability, a significant loss of indigenous people is recorded as they reach out to regional and global opportunities. People of both countries have very limited access to migrate to New Zealand, with only 75 places available each year for the hundreds of thousands of applicants. Such a restrictive migration policy sets these countries apart from other island nations in the Pacific, whose citizens can easily migrate to wealthier countries with which they have special relationships (New Zealand, with Niue and the Cook Islands; and the US, with Palau, Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia)4
Another major picture of their situation is the sources of income; both are dependent upon foreign aid and remittances. These two lag behind many other island nations of the region in terms of GDP per capita. Additionally, coconut farming and fisheries vitally contribute to their economies. Nonetheless, a rise in the temperature of the sea surface and land erosion are enormously affecting their economies.
The occurrence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles is likely to become more frequent in the coming years; consequently, more extreme weather events could be witnessed in the Pacific. The major effects of such events would be on key economic sectors, primarily on agricultural production, which would decline unevenly.5
Root causes of the current situation:
NASA published a report on Tuvalu’s intensifying sea-mergence threat in 2023, which mentioned that high tides, storms, and other extreme weather events, along with unstable ocean properties, are the primary reasons. In the following year, NASA warned Kiribati as well, with a report projecting future flood events which would lead to the three island groups’ submergence (which make up Kiribati). Nonetheless, as the U.N. General Secretary Mr Guterres spoke during his visit to Samoa last year, the greenhouse gas mainly generated by the burning of fossil fuels is enormously affecting small Pacific islands. This was said in the sense that such gases lead to the melting of the ice sheets of the Arctic and Antarctic, which eventually raises the sea level.
Scientific researches talk about ‘Thermal Expansion’, which claims that sea level rise is also caused by the warming of oceans. This is explicitly because, as the heat is absorbed, it ultimately expands the size of the sea.6 This is one essential but majorly overlooked consequence of global warming.
Way forward and implications:
Previously mentioned, NASA’s report of 2024 was titled- “Irreversible sea level rise for the Pacific islands” which indicated exactly what the Kiribati and Tuvalu’s population had precepted much earlier. People of both nations are unwillingly fleeing from their motherlands to find more livable opportunities outside. This is unwanted, though their first step towards a ‘way forward’. One major step to seek global attention was attempted by the Tuvaluan foreign minister, Mr Simon Kofe, his speech during COP26 in 2021 was given from the sea itself. He brought the world to see how his nation sinks day by day and displayed his request for global support regardless of being geographically close to his nation.
For decades, strong economies have contributed to the Pacific islands with large amounts of aid. Australia and New Zealand, located nearby, are paying much larger amounts than any other country every year since they hold closer ethnic contacts with these island nations. Where Kiribati gets the highest Official Development Finance (ODF) support from Australia, with New Zealand, Japan, Taiwan, and the World Bank’s significant contribution (more than 3/4th of the entire aid) 8; Tuvalu, on the other hand, receives more ODF support from the same fundraisers- over 85%9. Such financial support helps these nations enrich their educational, energy, and healthcare sectors, and also maintains infrastructural development.
In addition to such multi-dimensional support, New Zealand also financially and technically supports Tuvalu and Kiribati on the renewable energy front. On one side, New Zealand has a collaboration with the European Union for the Kiritimati Island Energy Sector Programme11; meanwhile, for Tuvalu, its energy project benefits Funafuti atoll, which is yet to run entirely on renewable energy12. Moreover, Tuvalu’s solar energy project is also a dream initiative, majorly funded by the Asian Development Bank (ADB)13.
It is also evident to mention that India is one of the major helpers of these Pacific Island nations. Tuvalu and Kiribati don’t just get financial assistance for their community development projects, but also, their people are offered training slots for technical, economic, and diplomatic programmes. India also assisted with more than a million dollars to construct Tuvalu’s Convention Centre in 201914. India is firmly putting its commitments and helping these countries bolster their healthcare. One major move was captured when India sent a six-bedded container-based dialysis unit to Kiribati in 202315.
Conclusion:
It can be called ‘unavoidable’ for countries like Tuvalu and Kiribati, as their recovery from sea-level rise is impossible anyway. With the Arctic becoming more open with every passing year, and countries obtaining new opportunities there instead of finding solutions, it barely seems realistic to control the rising sea level. Summits and research on sinking islands have exponentially surged in modern times, and it certainly justifies people’s drawing attention towards such a critical topic in recent years. Nonetheless, migration of people from these island countries is unstoppable; rather, it will unevenly grow in the new decade. Regardless of so much hopelessness, countries are investing in the comprehensive development of both countries; regional and global organisations like the UN, ADB, and many such are collaborating with Tuvalu and Kiribati to help tackle climate injustices.
NASA has also partnered with the UN in identifying key areas of development in climate and the sea around this region.
Most of the bigger economies have significant interests in the South Pacific region due to its strategic and economic importance. Evidently, it has been observed that many have begun investing even more in these tiny nations to not only help them combat the climate crisis but also to ensure a healthy present. More to this, Tuvalu and Kiribati are key examples replicating the negative impacts of climate change; these countries are disappearing, their population is migrating, and they all represent those who fled from their respective homelands due to the climate emergency. Hence, this justifies the fact that the sea level rise would eventually lead to the sinking of several small island states, cities on the seashore, and others. Both the island countries hereby circulate a global message that all nations should switch to renewable resources, maintain peace and ensure cooperation to combat climate change vulnerabilities.
ENDNOTES:
1. “Climate Change Transforms Pacific Islands,” World Meteorological Organization, September 2, 2024, https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/climate-change-transforms-pacific-islands
2. “The first climate refugees? Contesting global narratives of climate change in Tuvalu,” ScienceDirect, May 2012, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378011002019
3. “The Migraine of Migration: The Tiny Island-nation of Kiribati Struggles for Survival,” Center for Leadership in Global Sustainability | Virginia Tech, n.d., https://cligs.vt.edu/blog/the-migraine-of-migration--the-tiny-island-nation-of-kiribati-st.html
4. Richard Curtain and Matthew Dornan, “Climate Change and Migration in Kiribati, Tuvalu and Nauru,” Devpolicy Blog From the Development Policy Centre, February 14, 2019, https://devpolicy.org/climate-change-migration-kiribati-tuvalu-nauru-20190215/
5. Asian Development Bank, “THE ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE PACIFIC,” Asian Development Bank, 2013, https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/31136/economics-climate-change-pacific-brochure.pdf
6. “Thermal Expansion,” NASA Sea Level Change Portal, n.d., https://sealevel.nasa.gov/understanding-sea-level/global-sea-level/thermal-expansion/
7. “Climate Change: Global Sea Level,” NOAA Climate.gov, August 22, 2023, https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level
8. Lowy Institute, “Kiribati - Lowy Institute Pacific Aid Map,” n.d., https://pacificaidmap.lowyinstitute.org/country/kiribati/#4.439/-173.856/0.679
9. Lowy Institute, “Tuvalu - Lowy Institute Pacific Aid Map,” n.d., https://pacificaidmap.lowyinstitute.org/country/tuvalu/#7.514/178.947/-8.008
11. Infratec New Zealand Limited., “Significant Renewable Energy Project in Kiribati - Infratec New Zealand Limited.,” November 19, 2024, https://infratec.co.nz/news/significant-renewable-energy-project-in-kiribati/
12. Infratec New Zealand Limited., “Kiwi Company to Help Tuvalu Towards 100% Renewable Energy Goal - Infratec New Zealand Limited.,” November 19, 2024, https://infratec.co.nz/news/kiwi-company-to-help-tuvalu-towards-100-renewable-energy-goal/
13. Adbheadhoncho, “Increasing Access to Renewable Energy Project (Additional Financing) Under PREIF,” Asian Development Bank, June 24, 2025, https://www.adb.org/projects/49450-032/main
14. “High Commission of India, Suva, Fiji : India - Tuvalu,” n.d., https://www.indiainfiji.gov.in/page/india-tuvalu-bilateral/
15. “India Continues to Fulfil Its Commitments to Pacific Island Countries, Sends Container-based Dialysis Unit to Kiribati,” India News Network, n.d., https://www.indianewsnetwork.com/en/20250322/india-continues-to-fulfil-its-commitments-to-pacific-island-countries-sends-container-based-dialysis-unit-to-kiriba#:~:text=India%20has%20dispatched%20a%20six,(March%2022%2C%202025)
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