BALOCHISTAN: A Struggle for Identity, Autonomy and Independence

On 09 May 2025, The Republic of Balochistan announced independence from Pakistan due to their marginalisation, historical grievances, economic and political exploitation at the hands of Pakistanis. In the past few days, there were several images with Balochistan’s Flag and maps of an independent Baloch state as the “Republic of Balochistan”. People of Balochistan have urged the international community for their recognition globally. The province of Balochistan is resourceful, but it is still one of the underdeveloped provinces of Pakistan due to its geopolitical position, ethnic conflict, and insurgent groups. The province has become very important for most nations due to its strategic position and richness in resources. It is the biggest province of Pakistan and is located in southwestern Pakistan, with Iran in the southeastern corner and Afghanistan in the northwestern corner. Balochistan contains almost 44% of the geographical area of Pakistan. It is bordered by the Arabian Sea, where the port city of Gwadar is located, which provides direct connectivity to China's Pakistan Economic Corridor. It is endowed with valuable minerals such as natural gas, copper, coal, and gold. Balochistan possesses a rich cultural heritage based on the customs of its inhabitants.

Historical Background

Balochistan has a history that reaches back to ancient times, with well-known places such as Mehrgarh where human habitation existed. Balochis migrated to the region at that time and formed a sense of identity with their traditions, customs, and ethnic cultures. The Khanate of Kalat was the initial cohesive polity to form within the era of the British Empire. They occupied the non-Persian region of Balochistan during the British colonial era in the 1870s. Their motivation to enter the province was not economic, as in other places, but solely on the grounds of geopolitical and military reasons. The province of Balochistan was bifurcated into the British provinces and princely states. Following a series of resistance movements against the British Empire, in 1948, the accession of the Khan of Kalat to Pakistan occurred. Once more, upon union with the Pakistani state, the area was marginalised under its domination and looked for more independence and autonomy.

What is BLA?

The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) was formed in 2000, a secessionist armed group in Pakistan's province of Balochistan. The BLA organisation is infamous for high-profile attacks on the Chinese and Pakistani militaries. There has also been a suicide attack in November 2024 at Quetta railway station, which resulted in many casualties and injuries.  Earlier this year, in March 2025, they hijacked a train and abducted over a hundred Pakistani soldiers as hostages. The BLA organisation is also responsible for numerous attacks against Chinese personnel, where they are fighting the exploitation of their resources by the Chinese army.

The Baloch people have formed a sense of solidarity with the BLA to establish their province as an independent territory. To establish a Liberated Republic of Balochistan, the Baloch province would need international verification and recognition from the UN member states.

Whether India will recognize Balochistan as an independent republic or not—the answers are still awaited.

Geographical Significance

The strategic position of the region positions it as a major stakeholder among various countries such as Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, China, and other Central Asian republics. Its shortest link to the Arabian Sea, where the Gwadar port is located, opens up access to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and connects prominent regions for trade and transport communication. Since it is strategically located, all the players desire to utilise these resources for their socio-economic growth, especially China and Pakistan. Further, Afghanistan is a landlocked nation—obtaining access from Balochistan would give it access to water ports. Improvement of the Gwadar port enhances the chance for Pakistan to initiate commercial ventures and enhance the connectivity of trade with the Gulf nations.

Geopolitical Implications

The declaration of independence of Balochistan has several geopolitical implications for Pakistan, China, Iran, and Afghanistan.

IRAN: Pakistan shares a porous border with Iran in the Baloch region, which has led to clashes and accusations of harboring radical outfits on both sides. The porous border has facilitated cross-border insurgencies, smuggling, militancy, and radicalization. Furthermore, the Baloch independence movement may inspire Iranian Sistan-Balochis to become more assertive in their demands, potentially exacerbating Sunni-Shia tensions given the Balochi population's predominantly Sunni composition.

INDIA: India has consistently voiced concerns about humanitarian injustices, including those faced by the people of Balochistan under Pakistan's rule. New Delhi highlights human rights violations and the struggles of the Baloch people, maintaining a people-centric approach in its foreign policy. By doing so, India aims to bring international attention to the plight of the Baloch population while also strategically countering Pakistan's narrative, particularly regarding Kashmir.

CHINA: China can have serious consequences with respect to its Gwadar port initiative via its China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. China can experience infrastructural weaknesses in terms of threats to roads, pipelines, and railways linking Xinjiang to the Arabian Sea. The credibility of Gwadar, particularly in Africa and West Asia, can be affected by maritime threats and defeat the China's intention to circumvent the Malacca Strait by going through the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean.

PAKISTAN: Pakistan would face significant concerns if Balochistan were to gain independence, impacting its regional relations, internal stability, territorial unity, political and economic stability, social relations, and governance. The loss of Balochistan, which covers 44% of Pakistan's geographical area, would result in colossal economic and political losses, including the loss of mineral wealth crucial for Pakistan's economy and energy security. The separation would also affect Pakistan's relations with China, particularly regarding the strategic port of Gwadar, potentially discouraging foreign investment and increasing cross-border terrorism. Furthermore, it could embolden separatist movements in other provinces, strain relations with India if involved, and invite global pressure over human rights abuses and alleged atrocities against the Baloch people.

AFGHANISTAN: Afghanistan could potentially benefit from Balochistan's independence, particularly in gaining access to seaports and enhancing its connectivity to the world. As a landlocked country, Afghanistan's relations with an independent Balochistan could lead to developmental projects like railways and road connectivity, reducing its dependence on Iran and Pakistan. However, if Afghanistan supports the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) in their liberation goals, it could lead to destabilization along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, potentially escalating tensions beyond current levels.

Conclusion

The persistent conflict in Balochistan is not just a secessionist movement but a root-and-branch struggle for identity, self-governance, and justice. The most resource-endowed province of Pakistan, Balochistan is economically marginalised and politically isolated. Its geopolitical significance, particularly with the construction of the port of Gwadar and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, has also further fueled external stakes and intra-state tensions. The emergence of the Balochistan Liberation Army and the call for global acceptance is a turning point in the history of the region. With regional and international powers watching closely, the Balochistan independence movement could redefine South Asia's geopolitics. Whether this culminates in a new sovereign nation or escalates into a long-drawn conflict will rely on how Pakistan treats the justifiable issues of the Baloch people and how the global community responds. What is certain is that the destiny of Balochistan will prove to be crucial in shaping regional peace, stability, and balance of power in South and Central Asia.

Semran Gulzar