Introduction

The US Election 2024 between Trump and Harris was the most dramatic election of America in their history. It was for the first time that the country has elected a person as president for two non-consecutive terms. For most of the people, there was a close contest between Harris and Trump for the presidential post, but the results showed a completely different picture. In contrast, Trump managed to have a landslide victory against all odds. It was for the first time in the last 20 years that a Republican presidential candidate has managed to win popular votes. On top of that, now the Republican Party has a majority in both houses as well; in the Senate, they have 3 more senators than the majority mark, and in the House of Representatives, they successfully achieved the majority. But what led to this huge victory? And how does convicted presidential candidate Donald Trump manage to convince Americans that he can make their American Dream a reality?

Understanding Uncle Sam!

Before jumping on to the analysis of elections and figuring out what worked and what did not, it is important to understand the complex political system of America. It is quite interesting that in the world's oldest democracy one can become president even after not winning the popular votes, and this happens because of the “winner-takes-all” rule. Basically every US province/state (in Indian context) has a certain number of electoral colleges, and to win the presidential elections, every candidate needs to collect the 270 electoral colleges. Simple? No. Here’s where the winner-takes-all rule comes into play, which says that if any candidate wins the popular votes of a certain state, then that candidate is entitled to have all the electoral colleges of that state. For instance, in Texas, which has 40 electoral colleges, if any candidate wins the popular votes in this state, even by a thin margin, say 1%, then they will be rewarded with all 40 electoral colleges. Therefore, winning popular votes has less significance in US elections; rather, the focus is more on winning electoral colleges. 

Many experts always argue that this system of elections slightly favours the Republican party, as they can win elections even after not getting the majority votes. In the 21st century, George W. Bush was the last Republican president who won both electoral colleges and popular votes. Statistically, Democrats usually need at least 2.5% more popular votes than Republicans to secure their victory. In 2016, Hillary Clinton managed to secure 48.1% of the popular vote, whereas Trump won only 46.1%; still, Trump won that election. 

The Reason

The chaotic election of the USA was more dramatic than any regular show on Netflix, from an assassination attempt on Trump to Biden backing out from the middle of the election and endorsing Kamala Harris as Democrats presidential election. However, the results were way more surprising, as no one has predicted the huge victory of Trump. Let’s dive into the reason that led to this: 

Abortion Vs Immigration

Harris, using her identity as a female person, tried to make abortion an issue in the election, and her whole campaign was around this issue. This issue even got traction but was not very impactful against Trump. As Trump played safe by saying that it is at the discretion of states, whatever they decide. On the other hand, Trump used immigration as his biggest identity-based issue in this election, which has been way more successful. Just to put things in perspective, the population of “white alone” has been 72% as per the 2010 census in America, which has now reduced to only 61%. Many institutions, like Harvard, which used to have a majority of whites, have become white minority institutions. Therefore, for many orthodox white Americans, immigration is a substantial issue.

Idiocy over Choreography

Chris LaCivita, the political strategist of Trump, used many techniques that are considered unconventional. He made Winston Churchill’s word the mantra of Trump’s campaign: “To try to be safe everywhere is to be strong nowhere.” He used podcast channels on platforms like YouTube as their significant channel to reach masses, specifically young males. Data shows that Biden has the same lead in women voters over Trump as Hillary Clinton had in 2016; it was males who shifted to Biden, which led to the defeat of Trump in 2020. Therefore, he did everything to appeal to this segment of voters. Moreover, people in America liked Trump's brash attitude as compared to Harris’s well choreographed setup, which it seems to them was not real. However, this does not constitute any specific issue, but it is important to understand as this surely contributes to the spirit of the campaign. In 2020, people liked Biden as he projected him as a serious politician over Trump. But 4 years of anti-incumbency have turned the tables, and it is now safe to say that Kamala was not able to see it coming.

Biden’s Backout

It is true that Biden’s decision to back out of the election provided the initial momentum for Kamala’s campaign, but it is clear now that she was not fit for the post. Biden’s deteriorating health was evident enough to everyone; it would have been better if he had backed out earlier, which would have provided the party with a better candidate through the primaries. Harris during the election found it hard to place herself; even representing herself as black and not recognising her Indian origin also made people disappointed who belonged to the same identity. More importantly, the late backout of Biden did not provide Harris with any chance to provide something new to Americans, something that would have appealed. On the other hand, Trump was ready with his vision of “Make America Great Again.”

Ideological Setback

One can accuse Democrats of taking voters for granted. The sharp left ideological turn without realising their acceptance in society has led to one of the worst defeats of Democrats in recent history. For today’s practical world, the left-leaning ideology is very idealistic, which certainly looks good on paper but is hard to implement. The Democrats, which used to be the messiah of minorities in America, have lost their support. Arab-Americans left them on the issue of Gaza. They lost Indian-origin Americans because of the wrong placement of Kamala’s identity, where she intentionally portrayed herself as only black American but not as Indian-origin American, and even Hispanics went for Trump in some areas. 

Moreover, wokeism has also contributed to their defeat. It is important to understand the extent of such issues. Destroying existing social structure is not possible to implement such social changes. For instance, around 6,000 US schools denied parents the right to know the gender status of their own children. These issues are taking Democrats away from reality, as they are lost in their own imagined reality. 

Conclusion 

It is high time that Democrats and even all the left-leaning parties understand that merely calling your opponent dangerous is not enough. Negative narrative may provide you with some traction, but only positive narrative gets you votes. Specifically for Democrats, it is the time for some self-retrospection because, as mentioned earlier, Bush was the last Republican president in the last 20 years who won the popular votes in his second tenure, that too after 9/11. Whereas Trump has done that in the absence of any such emotive issue; therefore, this shows that problems are more structural and ideological than just being superficial.